Tong Zhao, Fellow, Nuclear Policy Program, Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy

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This article refers to:

The strategic elimination of nuclear weapons: an alternative global agenda for nuclear disarmament

Notes

1 “Nuclear-dependent countries” are states that have nuclear weapons or rely on the extended nuclear deterrence provided by nuclear-armed countries.

2 George Perkovich, “The Nuclear Ban Treaty: What Would Follow?,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2017, <http://carnegieendowment.org/2017/05/31/nuclear-ban-treaty-what-would-follow-pub-70136>.

3 The “stability–instability paradox” refers to the possibility that a stable mutual deterrence relationship at the nuclear level could lead to instability at the conventional military level.

4 Liu Yi and Liu Zhenjiang, “Lun Maozedong Helunli Sixiang Jiqi Shidai Jiazhi” [Mao Zedong’s nuclear ethical thought and its epochal value], Nanhua Daxue Xuebao (Shehuikexue Ban) [Journal of University of South China (Social Science Edition)], Vol. 10, No. 5 (2009), pp. 17–20; Zhang Jiayu, “Shilun Maozedong, Zhouenlai De Hezhanlue Sixiang” [An analysis of the nuclear strategic thinking of Mao Zedong and Zhou Enlai], Junshi Lishi Yanjiu [Military History Research], No. 2 (1989), pp. 1–7.

5 Arms Control Association, “U.S. Russian Strategic Stability Talks Begin,” October 1, 2017, <www.armscontrol.org/act/2017-10/arms-control-today/us-russian-strategic-stability-talks-begin>.

6 Zhao Jian, “Meiguo Hezhanlue De ‘Bian’ Yu ‘Bubian’ —Dui Aobama Zhengfu <Hetaishi Pinggu Baogao> De Fenxi” [The changed and unchanged of the US nuclear strategy: assessment of Obama administration’s nuclear-posture review report], Heping Yu Fazhan [Peace and Development], No. 4 (2010), pp. 46–50; Liu Zikui, “Aobama Wuhe Wuqi Shijie Zhanlue Pingxi” [Analysis of Obama’s nuclear-free-world strategy], Meiguo Yanjiu [American Studies], No. 3 (2009), pp. 58–72; Wang Zhijun, “Lun Meiguo ‘Juedui Anquan’ Shenxue Zhengzhi Yu Aobama ‘Wuhe Shijie Sixiang’” [On the United States’ political theology of “absolute security” and Obama’s “nuclear-free world”], Guoji Luntan [International Forum], Vol. 12, No. 1 (2010), pp. 14–20.

7 Keir A. Lieber and Daryl G. Press, “The New Era of Counterforce: Technological Change and the Future of Nuclear Deterrence,” International Security, Vol. 41, No. 4 (2017), pp. 9–49; Keir A. Lieber and Daryl G. Press, “The Rise of US Nuclear Primacy,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 85, No. 2 (2006), pp. 42–53; Austin Long and Brendan Rittenhouse Green, “Stalking the Secure Second Strike: Intelligence, Counterforce, and Nuclear Strategy,” Journal of Strategic Studies Vol. 38, Nos. 1–2 (2015), pp. 38–73.

8 Tamir Eshel, “Multi-object Kill Vehicle (Mokv) Begins to Take Shape,” Defense Update, <http://defense-update.com/20151122_ekv-mokv.html>.

9 Andrew Futter, “Cyber Threats and Nuclear Weapons: New Questions for Command and Control, Security and Strategy,” Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies, 2016, p. 33, <https://rusi.org/publication/occasional-papers/cyber-threats-and-nuclear-weapons-new-questions-command-and-control>.

10 Wang Changqin and Fang Guangming, “Women Weishenme Yao Fazhan Dongfeng-26 Dandao Daodan” [Why we need to develop DF-26 ballistic missiles], Zhongguo Qingnianbao [China Youth Daily], November 23, 2015.

11 I would like to thank Raymond Wang from the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey for raising this point.

12 Tong Zhao, “Trust-Building in the U.S.–Chinese Nuclear Relationship: Impact of Operational-Level Engagement,” PhD diss. Georgia Institute of Technology, 2014, pp. 300–16.

13 Donald Trump, Twitter post, December 22, 2016, <https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/811977223326625792>.

14 “Jiaqiang Zhanlue Heliliang, Zhongguo Buke Huandehuanshi” [Strengthen strategic nuclear capability: China must not hesitate], Huanqiu Shibao [Global Times], December 23, 2016; “Zhongguo De Junfei He Zhanlue Heliliang Douhai Bugou” [Both China’s defense spending and strategic nuclear capablities are not enough],” Huanqiu Shibao [Global Times], December 14, 2016.

15 “Zhongguo Ying Jinzao Liezhuang Dongfeng 41 Daodan, Xueruo Mei Tiaoxin Qishi” [China should deploy DF-41 missile as soon as possible to counter US provocation], Huanqiu Shibao [Global Times], December 5, 2016.