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Original Articles

PREVENTING NUCLEAR TERRORISM

A View from China

Pages 253-273 | Published online: 11 Dec 2006
 

Abstract

Nuclear terrorism in all its forms is the common enemy of all mankind. Given the emergence of global, non-state terrorism, China must be prepared to confront such threats. A terrorist attack using a functional nuclear device would be devastating. A radiological dispersion device or “dirty bomb” is another form—much less deadly and easier to build than even a crude nuclear device. China believes that to combat nuclear terrorism, it is vital to enhance the security of nuclear materials. Beijing has taken substantial steps in this direction, as well as in increasing the protection of its nuclear facilities, but much work remains to be done, including improving its management and control of radioactive sources and clarifying the design basis threat for critical installations. Ultimately, however, the most effective security will come from strengthening the international nonproliferation and nuclear control regimes.

This article was possible with the help of professors John W. Lewis, Scott Sagan, George Bunn, Wolfgang K.H. Panofsky, and Michael May, to whom the author is grateful. The author also thanks Lynn Eden for her research help, and Dave Dorn and Ellie Lwin for their editing suggestions.

Notes

1. David Albright, Kathryn Buehler, and Holly Higgins, “Bin Laden and the Bomb,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 59(Jan./Feb. 2002), pp. 23–24, <www.thebulletin.org/article.php?art_ofn=jf02albright_027>.

2. Joseph Cirincione and Alexis Orton, “Commission Pulls Its Punches, But Delivers Useful Proliferation Recommendations.” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, July 22, 2004, <www.carnegieendowment.org/npp/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=15609>.

3. Wolfgang K.H. Panofsky, “Nuclear Terrorism,” presented at the U.S./China Seminar, Beijing, No. 21–22, 2003.

4. Li Wei, “Summary of International Terrorism 2002”, International Information, No.1, 2003, p. 8.

5. Pan Ziqiang (chief editor), Nuclear and Radiation Terror Incidents Management, April 2005, p. 191.

6. While China does not publicly discuss the size or disposition of its nuclear arsenal, one recent Western estimate placed its total size at some 200 warheads. See Robert S. Norris and Hans Kristensen, “Chinese Nuclear Forces, 2006,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 62 (May/June 2006), pp. 60–63, <www.thebulletin.org/article_nn.php?art_ofn=mj06norris>.

7. Rose Gottemoeller, “Nuclear and Radiological Terrorism” testimony before the House Subcommittee on National Security, Veterans Affairs, and International Relations, Committee on Government Reform, Sept. 24, 2002, <www.ceip.org/files/projects/npp/pdf/Testimony/RoseGsept242002.pdf>.

8. Ziqing, Nuclear and Radiation Terror Incidents Management, pp. 28–29.

9. For an informative explication of all aspects of nuclear terrorism, see Charles D. Ferguson, William C. Potter, Amy Sands, Leonard S. Spector, and Fred L. Wehling, The Four Faces of Nuclear Terrorism (NY: Routledge, 2005). For discussion of the psychological impact of radiological terrorism, see Igor Khripunov, ‘‘The Social and Psychological Impact of Radiological Terrorism’’ in this volume.

10. For a report on the proliferation risks of radioactive sources, see Charles D. Ferguson, Tahseen Kazi, and Judith Perera, Commercial Radioactive Sources: Surveying the Risks, Centre for Nonproliferation Studies, Occasional Paper #11, July 2003.

11. China's Non-proliferation Policy and Measures (white paper), published by Information Office of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, Dec. 2003.

12. “A Review of International Strategic Situation and Its Prospects” by Xiong Guangkai, Chairman of CIISS, International Strategic Studies, No.1, 2004.

13. Author's interview with Lin She, Director of the Office of Nuclear Material Control, China Atomic Energy Authority, Sept. 21, 2004.

14. “Strengthening International Efforts in Nuclear Security and Promoting International Cooperation,” Speech by Zhang Huazhu, Chairman of China Atomic Energy Authority, London Nuclear Security Conference, London, March 16, 2005.

15. Ziqiang, Nuclear and Radiation Terror Incidents Management.

17. Ziqiang, Nuclear and Radiation Terror Incidents Management, p. 60.

18. Ziqiang, Nuclear and Radiation Terror Incidents Management, p. 60.

19. Nuclear Emergency Preparation Newsletter, No. 6, 2003.

20. China's Non-Proliferation Policy and Measures (white paper), Dec. 12, 2003.

21. China's Non-Proliferation Policy and Measures (white paper), Dec. 12, 2003.

22. China's Non-Proliferation Policy and Measures (white paper), Dec. 12, 2003.

23. China's Non-Proliferation Policy and Measures (white paper), Dec. 12, 2003.

24. Speech by Zhang Huazhu, Chairman of the China Atomic Energy Authority, at the 48th IAEA Conference, Vienna, Austria, Sept. 20, 2004.

25. “China has outlined pre-plan to prevent against nuclear terrorism,” April 14, 2003, <www.xinhuanet.com>.

26. “China has outlined pre-plan to prevent against nuclear terrorism,” April 14, 2003, <www.xinhuanet.com>.

27. “Great Wall 2003”Anti-terrorism Drill Carried Out in Beijing,” Chinese Atomic Energy Authority Web Site, <www.caea.gov.cn>.

28. “China's nuclear emergency response readiness level increased remarkably,” <www.caea.gov.cn>.

29. Ziqiang , Nuclear and Radiation Terror Incidents Management, p.73.

30. Guo Yong, Zhang Wenzhong, “Lesson from a Cobalt-60 Source Radiation Accident,” Radiation Protection, Vol.22, No.5 (2002), pp. 282–285.

31. Liu Hua, Zhao Yongming, and Pan Shu, “Status Quo of Safety Management of Radioactive Sources and Counter Measures,” Radiation Protection, Sept. 2002, p. 272–276.

32. Pan Ziqiang, “Discussion of Several Issues in the Safety Management of Radioactive Ssources,” Radiation Protection, Vol. 22, No. 5, Sept. 2002.

33. Pan Ziqiang, “Some Key Issues on Safe Management of Radioactive Sources,” Radiation Protection, Vol. 22, No. 5, Sept. 2002, p. 258.

34. Ziqiang, Nuclear and Radiation Terror Incidents Management, pp. 42–43.

35. “Roles and Responsibilities of Government Authorities in the Regulation of Radioactive Sources,” speech by Xu Yuming, Vice Chairman of China Atomic Energy Authority, at the International Conference on Security of Radioactive Sources, Vienna, Austria, March 12, 2003.

36. Xu Yuming, “Roles and Responsibilities, March 12, 2003.

37. Speech by Zhang Zhuhua, Chairman of the China Atomic Energy Authority, at the 48th IAEA Conference, Sept. 20, 2004.

38. Xu Yuming, “Roles and Responsibilities,” March 12, 2003.

39. Lawrence Scheinman, “Transcending Sovereignty in the Management and Control of Nuclear Material,” IAEA Bulletin, Vol. 43, No. 4 (2001), p. 33.

40. “Strengthened Safeguards System: Status of Additional Protocols,” IAEA Web Site, <www.iaea.org/OurWork/SV/Safeguards/sg_protocol.html>.

41. Liu Xiao Jun, “The Combat With ‘Shadow’ Would Not Stop”—Global Counter-Terrorists Fighting 2003, World Outlook, Feb. 2004, p. 72.

42. See Office of Senate Richard G. Lugar Web Site, <http://lugar.senate.gov/nunnlugar.html>; U.S. Dept. of Defense, “Cooperative Threat Reduction Annual Report to Congress, Fiscal Year 2006” (Washington, DC: Dept. of Defense, 2006); Defense Threat Reduction Agency Web Site, <http://www.dtra.mil/oe/ctr/programs/index.cfm>.

43. Joseph Cirincione and Alexis Orton, “Commission Pulls Its Punches,” July 22, 2004.

44. Joseph Cirincione, “Rice Pledges Strong Support to Nunn-Lugar Efforts,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Policy Analysis, Jan. 19, 2005, <www.carnegieendowment.org/npp/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=16395>.

45. Speech by Zhang Huazhu, Chairman of China Atomic Energy Authority, London Nuclear Security Conference, London, March 16, 2005.

46. U.S. General Accounting Office, “Nuclear Nonproliferation: DOE Needs to Take Action to Further Reduce the Use of Weapons-Usable Uranium in Civilian Research Reactors” (GAO-04-807), July 30. 2004, <www.gao.gov/new.items/d04807.pdf>.

47. “TC and the Global Threat Reduction Initiative,” January 7, 2005, IAEA Web Site, <http://tc.iaea.org/tcweb/regionalsites/europe/news/newsstory/default.asp?newsid=41>.

48. Kirstie Hansen, “Return to Sender”, IAEA Bulletin, June 2004, p. 62.

49. Cristina Chuen, “Reducing the Risk of Nuclear Terrorism: Decreasing the Availability of HEU, Center for Nonproliferation Studies Research Story, May 6, 2005, <http://cns.miis.edu/search97cgi/s97_cgi?action=View&VdkVgwKey=..%2F..%2Fcnsweb%2Fhtdocs%2Fpubs%2Fweek%2F050506.htm&queryzip=chuen+and+heu&Collection=CNS+Web+Site>.

50. Liu Hua, Zhao Yongming, Pan Su, Ma Hua and Li Xuequn, “Current Status and Countermeasures on Safe Management of Radioactive Sources,” Radiation Protection, No. 5, 2002.

51. Ziqiang , Nuclear and Radiation Terror Incidents Management, pp. 73–74.

52. Opening Remarks Zhang Huazhu, Chairman of China Atomic Energy Authority, Korea-China Nuclear Technology Forum, June 16, 2005, <www.caea.org.cn>.

53. “Nuclear Giants Eye Up China,” People's Daily Online, May 27, 2004, <http://English.people.com.cn/200405/27/eng20040527 144553.html>.

54. “China, People's Republic of—Nuclear Power Reactors,” IAEA, Power Reactor Information System, <www.iaea.org/programmes/a2/index.html>.

55. Li Cheng, “View the Physical Protection System of Nuclear Power Plants from the Angle of Designing and Safety Evaluation,” He Gongye Zidonghua [Nuclear Industry Automation], No. 4 (2002), pp. 1–3.

56. Fu Yong, “Prospect and Problems of Sino-US Counter-Terrorism Cooperation,” China's Foreign Affairs (published by China Renda [People's University] Social Science Information Center), No. 8 (2003), p. 46.

57. Information Office of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, China's National Defense in 2002 (Dec. 2002), p. 84.

58. Li Jing, “Nations to team up on arms control,” China Daily, July 21, 2004, p. 1.

59. Speech by Ambassador Hu Xiaodi at the UN Conference on Disarmament, Aug. 15, 2002.

60. Speech by Mr.Liu Jieyi, Director General of Arms Control and Disarmament Dept., Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China, at the 12th Annual International Arms Control Conference Sponsored by Sandia National Laboratories (Albuquerque, NM, USA, April 14, 2002).

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