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Original Articles

CHINA AND THE U.S. BEYOND THE KOREAN PENINSULA

The Bigger Power Game

Pages 317-338 | Published online: 11 Dec 2006
 

Abstract

China-U.S. cooperation over the most difficult security problem in Northeast Asia—the North Korean nuclear issue—in essence projects its bigger power game amid the tectonic shifts of Asian geopolitics. The nuclear issue affords a test case to gauge the future posture of China and the United States in East Asia and their partnership in that conflict-prone region. Approaches to resolving this issue must take into account the geopolitical realignment of Asia, Washington's reorientation of relations with its Asian allies, and China's rise as an influential regional player and the subsequent regional response. However, the long-standing mistrust between China and the United States is contributing to a lack of substantial progress in Korean nonproliferation efforts. The declared nuclear test by Pyongyang further put the denuclearization cooperation between China and the Unites States on the line. China-U.S. cooperation in denuclearizing Pyongyang may either produce lasting stability for the region or create ‘‘collateral damage,’’ with the North Korean issue paling in comparison.

The author owes special thanks to Jason Cheng Qian, Sean M. Lynn-Jones, Walt Kato, Joseph Nye, Graham Allison, and anonymous reviewers of The Nonproliferation Review for helpful comments on the draft. The author is also grateful to numerous colleagues and interviewees for sharing their perspectives.

Notes

1. Christopher R. Hill, “Emergence of China in the Asia-Pacific: Economic and Security Consequences for the U.S.,” testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Subcommittee on East Asian and Pacific Affairs, 109th Cong., June 7, 2005, <http://foreign.senate.gov/testimony/2005/HillTestimony050607.pdf>.

2. Ambassador Li Bin, speech given at Chungnam National University, April 27, 2005, <www.chinaemb.or.kr/chn/sgxx/gyjh/t193681.htm>.

3. Chinese analyst (name withheld by request), interview by author, Singapore, Dec. 18, 2004.

4. Jing Qiangyi, “American and Japanese Strategy in Northeast Asia and the Korean Peninsula Issue,” Contemporary Asia Pacific 117 (Sept. 2004) pp. 20–24.

5. Glenn Kessler, “On Asia Trip, Rice to Nudge Allies on North Korea,” Washington Post, March 13, 2005, p. A23.

6. Hill, “Emergence of China.”

7. “Bush Urges China to Push N. Korea on Nukes,” Washington Post, June 9, 2005.

8. “China Sees No Sign of N. Korea Nuclear Test,” China Daily, May 24, 2005,

9. David Sanger, “U.S. Warns of Penalties for Korean Nuclear Test,” New York Times, May 16, 2005, <http://select.nytimes.com/search/restricted/article?res=F30911FD34540C758DDDAC0894DD40448>.

10. Chinese Foreign Ministry, news conference with Liu Jianchao, Feb. 14, 2006.

11. David Rennie, “Rumsfeld Calls for Regime Change in North Korea,” Daily Telegraph, April 22, 2003.

12. Ralph A. Cossa, “President Bush's Press Conference: Missing the Point!” Policy Forum Online, Nautilus Institute website, <www.nautilus.org/fora/security/0538Acossa.html>.

13. “A Rare Look Inside Bush's Cabinet,” broadcast on “60 Minutes,” Nov. 17, 2002, <www.cbsnews.com/stories/2002/11/17/60minutes/main529657.shtml>.

14. Staff member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee (name withheld by request), interview by author, Washington DC, Jan. 26, 2005.

15. “China denies reports it massed troops on North Korean border,” Associated Press, Nov. 24, 2004.

16. Howard W. French, “Chinese Reluctant to Lean on North Korea,” International Herald Tribune, Feb. 19, 2005, <www.iht.com/articles/2005/02/18/news/china.php>.

17. Jing Quan, Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, remarks delivered at “A Regional Discussion of the Six-Party Process: Challenges and Opportunities in North Korea,” Brookings Institution, Washington, DC, March 11, 2005, <www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20050311.htm>.

18. Wang Zhongwen, “A New Viewpoint to Examine the North Korea Issue and the Northeast Asian Situation, “Strategy and Management Magazine (July/Aug. 2004).

19. U.S. State Dept. official (name withheld by request), interview by author, Washington, DC, Dec. 2, 2004.

20. Wendy Sherman, interview by author, Washington DC, Jan. 26, 2004.

21. Robert Gallucci, interview by author, Washington DC, Nov. 30, 2004.

22. Zhu Feng, “China-US Relations and Its Implications to N. Korea's Nuclear Standoff”, seminar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington DC, Aug. 18, 2004.

23. U.S. State Dept. official, Dec. 2, 2004.

24. David Sanger, “U.S. and Seoul Share a Goal but Not a Strategy on North Korea,” New York Times, Nov. 17, 2005, <http://select.nytimes.com/search/restricted/article?res=F30F10FA3A5A0C748DDDA80994DD404482>.

25. As a negotiating position introduced by the United States during the six-party talks, CVID encompassed a set of conditions to which North Korea must commit and demonstrate tangible progress before the United States would begin any reciprocal measures.

26. Quan, “A Regional Discussion of the Six-Party Process.”

27. Charles Scanlon, “North Korea Threatens Talks Walk-out,” BBC News, Dec. 6, 2005, <http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/4502336.stm>.

28. Jason Qian and Anne Wu, “China's Role in North Korea,” Boston Globe, Dec. 19, 2005, <www.boston.com/news/world/asia/articles/2005/12/19/chinas_role_in_north_korea/>.

29. Victor Cha and David C. Kang, Nuclear North Korea: A Debate on Engagement Strategies (New York: Columbia University Press, 2003), p. 86.

30. Quoted in Fareed Zakaria, “No Policy is Not Good Policy,” Newsweek, May 23, 2005, <http://fareedzakaria.com/articles/newsweek/052305.html>.

31. “DPRK Praised Bush Addressing Kim as ‘Mr.,’” China Daily, June 3, 2005;<www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2005-06/03/content_448459.htm>; ‘‘George Bush: ‘Kim Jong II is a Pygmy’,’’ Korean Web Weekly <www.kimsoft.com/2002/pygmy.htm>.

32. “Joint Statement of the Fourth Round of the Six-Party Talks Beijing,” Sept. 19, 2005, <www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2005/53490.htm>.

33. “Japan: N. Korea is top threat,” CNN, Aug. 6, 2003, <http://edition.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/asiapcf/east/08/05/japan.defense/>.

34. David Scofield , “Korea-centrism and the Foreign 'Threat',” Asia Times, Jan. 15, 2004, <www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/FA15Dg03.html>.

35. Evans J.R. Revere, “Evolution of the US-Korea Alliance and the Future of Northeast Asia,” remarks delivered at the Korean Economic Institute, Washington DC, May 2, 2005.

36. James Kelly, “Overview of Top Goals and Objectives for East Asia-Pacific Region,” statement before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Washington DC, March 26, 2003, <http://foreign.senate.gov/testimony/2003/KellyTestimony030326.pdf>.

37. James Kelly, “US-East Asia Policy,” remarks to the Woodrow Wilson Center Conference on “George W. Bush and Asia: An Assessment,” Washington DC, Nov. 9, 2004.

38. James Kelly, “An Overview of US-East Asia Policy,” testimony before the House International Relations Committee, Washington DC, June 2, 2004.

39. James Kelly, “An Overview of US-East Asia Policy,” testimony before the House International Relations Committee, Washington DC, June 2, 2004.

40. French, “Chinese Reluctant to Lean on North Korea.”

41. Robert S. Ross, “The U.S.-China Peace: Great Power Politics, Spheres of Influence, and the Peace of East Asia,” Journal of East Asian Studies 3 ( Sept.–Dec.2003).

42. James Kelly, “Six-Party Talks,” opening remarks before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Washington DC, March 2, 2004.

43. Chinese Foreign Ministry, press conference with Liu Jianchao, June 8, 2004.

44. Kenneth Lieberthal, quoted by Stan Crock, “The Coming U.S.—China Summits”, BusinessWeek Online, May 3, 2005, <www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/may2005/nf2005053_0773_db039.htm>.

45. “Record of Historic Richard Nixon-Zhou Enlai Talks in Feb. 1972 Now Declassified,” National Security Archive website, <www.gwu.edu/∼nsarchiv/nsa/publications/DOC_readers/kissinger/nixzhou/index.html>. The quote comes from “Memorandum of Conversation, Wednesday Feb. 23, 1972, 2:00pm-6:00pm” (p. 17), <www.gwu.edu/∼nsarchiv/nsa/publications/DOC_readers/kissinger/nixzhou/13-01.htm>.

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