IDENTIFYING NUCLEAR ASPIRANTS AND THEIR PATHWAYS TO THE BOMB

Abstract

In the past, international efforts to stop aspiring nuclear powers often came too late, well after decisions to acquire nuclear weapons had been taken and substantial progress in their programs had been made. To be effective, the United States and other key governments must intervene at an earlier stage. By better understanding the factors that may motivate particular countries to opt for nuclear weapons, the intelligence community can help policymakers devise country-tailored policies that address key concerns and reduce incentives for nuclear capabilities. Moreover, by studying the likely technical and political pathways individual countries may take toward a nuclear capability, the intelligence community may be able to identify early indicators of possible interest in nuclear weapons and help policymakers develop strategies for impeding or complicating progress along those pathways.

Keywords:

• Nonproliferation
• Proliferation
• Nuclear
• NPT
• IAEA
• Intelligence
• Security
• Fissile
• Pathways

Notes

1. Kofi Annan, “A More Secure World: The Future Role of the United Nations,” speech to the Munich Conference on Security Policy, Feb. 13, 2005, </www.securityconference.de/konferenzen/rede.php?menu_2005=&menu_konferenzen=&sprache=en&id=156&>.

2. On this point, see Scott D. Sagan, “How to Keep the Bomb from Iran,” Foreign Affairs 85 (Sept.r/Oct. 2006), pp. 45–59.

3. Kurt M. Campbell, Robert J. Einhorn, and Mitchell B. Reiss, eds., The Nuclear Tipping Point: Why States Reconsider Their Nuclear Choices (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2004).