ASSESSING POTENTIAL NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION NETWORKS IN LATIN AMERICA: 2006–2016

Abstract

From a proliferation perspective, Latin America has become one of the most denuclearized regions of the planet, and barring some revolutionary transformation of the international system, it is likely to remain so during the next decade. A combination of a paucity of credible external threats, widespread democratization, and the systematic resolution of border conflicts, particularly in the Southern Cone region, mean that states in the region do not see the value of acquiring nuclear weapons as a deterrent. The two states in the region with the most advanced civilian nuclear programs, Argentina and Brazil, have created a sophisticated mutual inspection regime that is an additional barrier to the development of any new proliferation network, and both states have a strong interest in maintaining a benign regional security environment. Venezuela's radical leader, Hugo Chávez, has expressed an interest in developing a nuclear power program, raising concerns among some observers over a potential new proliferation risk. However, Venezuela currently lacks the scientific and management expertise required to master nuclear technology within the next decade.

Keywords:

• Latin America
• Nuclear power
• Nuclear proliferation
• Argentina
• Brazil
• Venezuela

Notes

1. Michael Barletta, “The Military Nuclear Program in Brazil,” CISAC Paper (Stanford, CA: Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University, 1997); and Daniel Flemes, “Brazil's Nuclear Policy: From Technological Dependence to Civil Nuclear Power,” German Institute for Global Affairs Research Program No. 23 (June 2006).

2. Douglas MacKinnon, “Is Iran Helping Venezuela Go Nuclear?” Houston Chronicle, May 21, 2005; Stephen Johnson, “Hugo Chavez, Imperialist,” Heritage Foundation, Washington DC, March 6, 2006, <www.heritage.org/Press/Commentary/ed030606a.cfm>. Numerous blogs have commented, often critically, on these allegations. See examples at <www.dailykos.com/story/2005/5/22/32629/5352>; and <http://westernhemispherepolicywatch.blogspot.com/2006/04/iran-nukes-to-cuba-and-venezuela.html>.

3. Flemes, “Brazil's Nuclear Policy.”

4. Sam Logan and Julio Cirino, “Venezuelan Nuclear Technology Is a Long Shot,” ISN Security Watch, Oct. 26, 2005, <www.isn.ethz.ch/news/sw/details.cfm?ID=13286>.

5. Arie Kacowicz, Zones of Peace in the Third World: South America and West Africa in Comparative Perspective (Albany: State University of New York Press, 1998); Andrew Hurrell, “An Emerging Security Community in South America?” in Emanuel Adler and Michael Barnett, eds., Security Communities (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1998), pp. 228–64.

6. David Mares, Violent Peace: Militarized Interstate Bargaining in Latin America (New York: Columbia University Press, 2001); and Zeev Maoz and Bruce Russett, “Normative and Structural Causes of The Democratic Peace, 1946–1986,” American Political Science Review 87 (Sept. 1993), pp. 624–38.

7. David Pion-Berlin, “Will Soldiers Follow? Economic Integration and Regional Security in the Southern Cone,” Journal of Interamerican Studies and World Affairs 42 (Spring 2000), pp. 43–69.

8. Barletta, “The Military Nuclear Program in Brazil.”

9. John R. Redick, “Nuclear Illusions: Argentina and Brazil,” Henry L. Stimson Center Occasional Paper 25, Dec. 1995, <www.stimson.org/wmd/pdf/redick.pdf>.

10. John R. Redick, “Nuclear Illusions: Argentina and Brazil,” Henry L. Stimson Center Occasional Paper 25, Dec. 1995, <www.stimson.org/wmd/pdf/redick.pdf>.

11. Barletta, “The Military Nuclear Program in Brazil.”

12. José de Luis Santana Carvalho, letter to the editor from former director of Brazil's nuclear energy commission, Arms Control Today (March 2006), pp. 51–52, <www.armscontrol.org/act/2006_03/LetterstotheEditor.asp>.

13. Federation of American Scientists (FAS), “Nuclear Weapons Programs: Brazil,” FAS Web Site, <www.fas.org/nuke/guide/brazil/nuke/index.html>.

14. Federation of American Scientists, “OSC Analysis: Brazil Nuclear Program Remains on Hold Amid Cabinet Debate,” April 5, 2006, FAS Web Site, <www.fas.org/nuke/guide/brazil/osc040506.html>.

15. Michael A. Levi, “Nuclear Reactor: Botching Brazilian Diplomacy,” The New Republic Online, April 13, 2004, <www.brook.edu/views/op-ed/levi/20040413.htm>.

16. Logan and Cirino, “Venezuelan Nuclear Technology is a Long Shot.”

17. Larry Rohter and Juan Forero, “Venezuelan Leader Eager to Start Nuclear Program.” New York Times, Nov. 27, 2005, <www.iht.com/articles/2005/11/27/news/chavez.php>.

18. Peter Wilson, “Venezuela's Chavez Says Visit to North Korea Planned, No Dates,” Bloomberg.com, July 19, 2006, <www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=azeAR_ZwzlrQ&refer=latin_america>.

19. John Hughes, “Latin America's Leftist Regimes Get Cozy with Iran,” Christian Science Monitor, Feb. 15, 2006, <www.csmonitor.com/2006/0215/p09s02-cojh.html>.

20. Harold A. Trinkunas, “Defining Venezuela's ‘Bolivarian Revolution,’” Military Review 85 (July–Aug. 2005), pp. 39–44, <http://usacac.leavenworth.army.mil/CAC/milreview/download/English/JulAug05/Btri.pdf>.

21. Logan and Cirino, “Venezuelan Nuclear Technology is a Long Shot.”

22. Howard LaFranchi, “U.S. Unfazed by Venezuela's Talk Nukes,” Christian Science Monitor, Oct. 13, 2005, <www.csmonitor.com/2005/1013/p02s02-usfp.html>.

23. Patrick Markey, “Chavez to Call Term Limit Referendum,” Houston Chronicle, Sept. 1, 2006, <www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/world/4158615.html>.