THE NUCLEAR ENERGY MARKET AND THE NONPROLIFERATION REGIME

Abstract

This article presents a review of the sensitivities to proliferation attempts in each of the different stages of the commercial nuclear fuel cycle and within the nuclear power industry. As the global nuclear power industry may be on the brink of a major expansion that might rival its original growth at the inception of the nuclear age, the question is: Would this second expansion create uncontrollable proliferation risks in its wake? The basic answer is that the nuclear power industry in itself does not pose a direct proliferation threat; however, various elements of the nuclear fuel cycle could create different proliferation sensitivities if not safeguarded carefully. The first element of securing the nuclear fuel cycle is the understanding of which elements pose the greatest potential for successful proliferation attempts. These issues and several institutional and technical mitigation strategies to reduce the potential for possible proliferation are discussed here.

Keywords:

• Nuclear power
• Nuclear fuel cycle
• Proliferation risks
• Treaty on the Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons
• Nuclear fuel supply assurance

Notes

1. World Nuclear Association (WNA), “Nuclear Power in the World Today,” Issue Brief, Feb. 2006, WNA Web Site, <www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf01.htm>.

2. “Global Energy Security,” G-8 Summit. official Web Site of the G-8 Presidency, St. Petersburg, Russia, July 27, 2006, <http://en.g8russia.ru/docs/11.html>.

3. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), PRIS Nuclear Power Plant Information.

4. Burton Richter, “Fuel Cycles: New Strategies for Advanced Nuclear Fuel Cycles,” unpublished presentation at the Plutonium Futures Conference, Asilomar, CA, July 11, 2006.

5. WNA, “U.S. Nuclear Power Industry,” Issue Brief, July 2006.

6. WNA, “Nuclear Power in China,” Issue Brief, July 2006, WNA Web Site, <www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf63.htm>.

7. WNA, “Nuclear Power in China,” Issue Brief, July 2006, WNA Web Site, <www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf63.htm>.

8. WNA, “Nuclear Power in China,” Issue Brief, July 2006, WNA Web Site, <www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf63.htm>.

9. WNA, “Nuclear Power in Russia,” Issue Brief, June 2006, WNA Web Site, <www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf45.htm>. See also Sergei Dmitriyev, “Nuclear GAZPROM,” Moscow News, July 21, 2006.

10. Anon., “Russia Says No Plans to Store Foreign Spent Nuclear Fuel,” RIA Novosti, Moscow, Russia, July 11, 2006.

11. U.S. Dept. of Energy, DOE/GNEP Web Site, Washington, DC, Feb. 7, 2006, “The Global Nuclear Energy Partnership,” Greater Energy Security in a Cleaner Safer World, <www.gnep.energy.gov/>; U.S. DOE Advanced Fuel Cycle Initiative Program, Report to Congress: Spent Nuclear Fuel Recycling Program, DOE/GNEP/AFCI, Washington, DC, May 2006, <www.gnep.energy.gov/pdfs/snfRecyclingProgramPlanMay2006.pdf>.

12. “President Delivers ‘State of the Union,’” The White House, Jan. 28, 2003, <www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2003/01/20030128-19.html>. President Bush's exact words were, “The British government has learned that Saddam Hussein recently sought significant quantities of uranium from Africa.” See also, Letter from Representative Henry A. Waxman, Ranking Minority Member, House Committee on Government Reform, to President George W. Bush, June 2, 2003, <http://fl1.findlaw.com/news.findlaw.com/hdocs/docs/iraq/waxmanbush060203ltr.pdf>; Dana Priest and Dana Milbank, “President Defends Allegation on Iraq,” Washington Post, July 15, 2003, p. A1, <www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A56336-2003Jul14?language=printer>.

13. There is a great body of literature related to military and terrorist threats to NPPs. See an early book on this topic by Bennett Ramberg, Destruction of Nuclear Energy Facilities in War (Lahnam, MD: Lexington Books, 1980). See also Charles D. Ferguson and William C. Potter with Amy Sands, Leonard Spector, and Fred Wehling, The Four Faces of Nuclear Terrorism (New York: Routledge, 2005), Ch. 5; C. Braun, F. Steinhausler, and L. Zaitseva, “International Terrorists’ Threat to Nuclear Facilities”’, unpublished paper presented at the 2002 ANS Winter Meeting, Washington, DC, Nov. 19, 2002.

14. International Atomic Energy Agency, Treaty on the Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, INFCIRC/140, April 22, 1970, <www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Infcircs/Others/infcirc140.pdf>.

15. UN Security Council Resolution 1540, adopted by the Security Council at its 4,956th meeting on April 28, 2004, Document S/res/1540 (2004), New York, NY, <http://disarmament2.un.org/Committee1540/Res1540(E).pdf>.

16. UN Security Council, Press Release, April 27, 2006, “Security Council Extends for 2 Years Mandate of Committee Monitoring Implementation of Resolution 1540 (2004) on Mass Destruction Weapons: Resolution 1673 (2006), Adopted Unanimously, Intensified Effort Called for to Keep Non-State Actors from Acquiring Such Weapons,” <www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2006/sc8708.doc.htm>.

17. International Working Group on Multilateral Approaches, IAEA Report INFCIRC/640, Multilateral Approaches to the International Nuclear Fuel Cycle, Vienna, Austria, Feb. 2005, <www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Infcircs/2005/infcirc640.pdf>.

18. Mohamed ElBaradei, “Reflections on Nuclear Challenges Today,” IAEA Director General, Alistair Buchan Lecture to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, London, UK, Dec. 5, 2005, <www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/Statements/2005/ebsp2005n019.html>. See also Pierre Goldschmidt “Mechanisms to Increase Nuclear Fuel Supply Guarantees,” Presentation at the Carnegie Nonproliferation Conference, Washington, DC, Nov. 8, 2005, <www.carnegieendowment.org/static/npp/2005conference/presentations/Goldschmidt_fuel_supply.pdf>.

19. “Global Nuclear Energy Partnership,” GNEP Program, Victor Reis, Presentation at the Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford, CA, May 25, 2006.

20. For reports on the Russian offer to Iran, see RIA Novosti, “IAEA Head Hails Russia's Proposal to Supply Nuclear Fuel to Iran,” London, UK, Dec. 6, 2005. See also Mark Heinrich and Louis Charbonneau, Reuters, “Russian Nuclear Plan for Iran Unites,” Vienna, Austria, Nov. 24, 2005, and Brooks Tigner, “Officials May Discuss Russian Offer to Make Nuclear Fuel for Iran,” Defense News, Brussels, Belgium, Nov. 29, 2005.

21. See “Global Energy Security,” G-8 Summit, particularly the section on Nuclear Energy. See also the G-8 Statement on Nonproliferation, Section on Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy, <http://en.g8russia.ru/docs/20.html>.

22. John Deutch, Arnold Kanter, Ernest Moniz, and Daniel Poneman, “Making the World Safe for Nuclear Energy,” Survival 46 (Winter 2004–2005), pp. 65–80.

23. Chaim Braun and Michael May, “International Regime of Fresh Fuel Supply and Spent Fuel Disposal,” Nonproliferation Review 13 (March 2006), pp. 61–84.