Optimizing Circular Economy Planning and Risk Analysis Using System Dynamics

ABSTRACT

This article develops a systems dynamics and multi-objective programming model (SDMOP) for planning a regional circular economy. Various risk analyses are conducted using the technique of sensitivity analysis. This SDMOP model includes two modules: the MOP module used to derive optimized parameters as inputs to the systems dynamics model, and the systems dynamics module used to plan the regional circular economy. We demonstrate the application of this SDMOP model to a problem of planning the circular economy of a county in the Sichuan Province of China.

Key Words:

• circular economy
• system dynamics
• multi-objective programming
• risk analysis
• sensitivity analysis

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

This research was supported by the National Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholars, P. R. China (Grant No. 70425005) and the Teaching and Research Award Program for Outstanding Young Teachers in Higher Education Institutions of MOE of P. R. China (Grant No. 20023834-3).