A Pilot Application of Regional Scale Risk Assessment to the Forestry Management of the Upper Grande Ronde Watershed, Oregon

ABSTRACT

An issue in forestry management has been the integration of a variety of different information into a threat analysis or risk assessment. In this instance, regional scale risk assessment was applied to the Upper Grande Ronde watershed in eastern Oregon to examine the potential of risk assessment for use in the management of broad landscapes. The site was a focus of study for the U.S. Forest Service through the Interior Northwest Landscape Analysis System (INLAS) project. In the study, a range of stressors, habitats, and endpoints were identified from previous studies in the watershed, and endpoints were determined from meeting with the primary stakeholder, the U.S. Forest Service. These endpoints were focused around the historic range of variability (HRV) defined for the area. The relative risk model (RRM) incorporating a Monte Carlo analysis was used as the analysis tool. The risk model output showed the HRV fire regime was the endpoint most at risk. The results of this analysis were compared to the Wallowa-Whitman National Forest prioritization of watershed restoration analysis. The RRM demonstrated similar results but with a better accounting for uncertainty. From this trial the RRM has proven to be a potential management tool for forestry management.

Key Words:

• regional risk assessment
• relative risk model
• forestry management
• Interior Northwest Landscape Analysis System

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

Suzanne Anderson thanks everyone at the USFS Pacific Northwest Station and La Grande Ranger District for all their effort in helping us access data, especially Alan Ager, Miles Hemstrom, Kurt Wiedenmann and Paul Boehne. Sarah Christensen was the hardworking intern for this project. She also thanks April Markiewicz and Dorene Gould for their support and the mentoring of Valerie Chen regarding the use of the RRM. Funding for this project was provided by the Joint Venture Agreement No. PNW 06-JV-11261900–070 with the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the Western Wildland Environmental Threat Assessment Center. Thanks also to Charles (Terry) Shaw of the USFS for his continued encouragement and support of this project.