Stochastic and Subjective Uncertainty in the Assessment of Radiation Exposure at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

Abstract

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is under development by the U.S. Department of Energy as a geologic (i.e., deep underground) disposal facility for transuranic waste. An analysis is presented of possible radiation exposures associated with inadvertent drilling intrusions through the WIPP using future drilling rates obtained in accordance with requirements specified by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in 40 CFR 194, Subpart B. The analysis attempts to maintain a separation between stochastic (i.e., aleatory) and subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertainty as implied in the EPA regulations 40 CFR 191, Subpart B, and 40 CFR 194. The results of the analysis are presented as distributions of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDFs) for radiation exposure to oil field workers, where the individual CCDFs arise from stochastic uncertainty (i.e., many possible patterns of drill ing intrusions are possible over the 10,000 yr period specified in 40 CFR 191, Subpart B) and the distributions of CCDFs arise from subjective uncertainty (i.e., many inputs to the analysis have fixed, but poorly known, values). The projected radiation exposures during the 10,000 yr period following decommissioning of the WIPP in the year 2033 were found to be small (typically less than 0.001 person-Sv), with the dominant exposure pathway being the incidental ingestion of contaminated dirt by drilling crew members.

Keywords:

• Aleatory uncertainty
• epistemic uncertainty
• radiation exposure
• radioactive waste disposal
• sensitivity analysis
• stochastic uncertainty
• subjective uncertainty
• uncertainty analysis
• Waste Isolation Pilot Plant.