Real Estate Information Technology: International Terrorism Cyclicality: Predictions and Concerns Regarding Private Commercial Buildings

Abstract

The paper explores overall worldwide terrorism attacks and those targeting separately commercial and government facilities, through statistical analysis and cycling with a 40-year dataset. The results indicate a surge of lethal attacks after the Gulf War and the existence of cycles. The cyclicality of terrorist incidences in commercial buildings is estimated at 18.4 years (injury and fatality cycles are 7.8 and 8.4 years, respectively). Projections are offered until 2020, with the next period of increased casualties predicted from the end of 2008 through 2010. Concerns are raised on improvised explosive devices (IEDs), "Trojan-horses," and building-system tampering. Vigilance, information-sharing, and use of technology by building personnel may reduce the predicted casualty trends.