Flood Zone Uncertainty and the Likelihood of Marketing Success

Abstract

This work investigates the effect of uncertainty over a property's flood zone status and the probability of a transaction for residential property during a given marketing period. While the impact on property price from flood zone delineation is well documented, the effect of any uncertainty over the location of property with respect to the 100-year flood pool on the probability of a transaction has yet to be determined. Findings suggest that uncertainty of flood zone status leads to a statistically lower probability of transaction, ceteris paribus. These results have implications for property sellers, real estate professionals, and government regulators.