Degradation of Island ice domes in the arctic with climatic warming (from the example of Nordaustlandet)

Abstract

Using an established formula for calculating glacier surface melt from mean summer air temperatures and measured mass balance parameters, the authors have developed a technique of numerical modeling for predicting changes in volume and area of glaciers that may be anticipated with various scenarios for climatic warming. Applying the technique to the glaciers of Nordaustlandet, Svalbard, they have formulated the following predictions. With any warming over 3° C, all the glacier ice on Nordaustlandet will disappear; with a warming of 4° this will occur in 1000 years, and with a warming of 6° C it will occur in only 300 years. Even with a minor temperature increase (1–2° C) over a period of 400–600 years the ice area and volume will shrink by 30–50%, mainly in marginal areas of Austfonna where the glacier bed is below sea level; the isolated ice cap of Vestfonna will also disappear completely, even with this minor degree of warming.