Complexity and uncertainty in arctic resource decisions: The example of the Yamal pipeline

Abstract

This paper describes how a qualitative form of analysis, developed by Russian decision scientists, was used to assist Russian governmental organizations in deciding whether to route a gas pipeline over land or under sea on the Yamal Peninsula in Siberia. Complexity was reduced, and uncertainty translated into cost, through the development of superior alternative options. The analysis suggests, more generally, that Arctic resource decisions can be restructured to make tradeoffs clear and, perhaps, more understandable to a broader audience.