The future of the Arctic populations

ABSTRACT

Projections of the future size, composition, and distribution of the populations of the Arctic states and regions are useful for policy makers in planning. This paper presents and analyzes the most recent population projections done for the Arctic states and regions. Global population growth is projected to continue increasing from the current total of 7.4 billion to 10 billion in 2055. The population of the Arctic, as defined here, is projected to have little change with a projected population increase of just 1%. However, there will be considerable variation in growth rates among Arctic regions. Alaska, Yukon, Nunavut, Iceland, Troms, the Khanty-Mansiy Okrug, and Chukotka are projected to have a substantial population increase of more than 10% over the projection period. Nordland, Finnmark, North Ostrobothnia, and Nenets Autonomous Okrug are projected to have more modest growth of between 5% and 10%. Kainuu in Finland, Karelia, Komi, Arkhangel’sk, Murmansk, and Magadan in Russia are projected to have population declines of more than 5%. Common trends seen in nearly all Arctic regions in the future are aging populations, more balanced gender ratios between men and women, increased population concentration into larger urban settlements, and the depopulation of smaller settlements.

KEYWORDS:

• Population projections
• migration
• urbanization
• population aging
• fertility
• mortality

Acknowledgements

The author would like to thank Olivia Napper, graduate student in the Department of Geography at George Washington University, for the creating the maps in this paper and other research assistance.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by US National Science Foundation.