The Predictive Ability of the Historic Beta of Hotel Stocks in the 2008 Market Downturn

Abstract

This study investigates the performance of hotel common stocks relative to specific market indices and assesses whether or not historic beta was an appropriate measurement of future risk for hotel stocks in the market downturn of 2008. Using three different measurements of beta, the study finds statistically significant differences in beta between typical and up-market scenarios as compared with a down-market scenario. This difference was persistent regardless of the beta measure used. The study also identifies a statistically significant difference in betas between hotel real estate investment trusts and hotel C corporations in the down-market scenario. This study identifies the significant risk taken on by investors in assuming that betas for hotel stocks will be persistent across varying market scenarios.