Sarima-Based Cyber-Risk Assessment and Mitigation Model for A Smart City’s Traffic Management Systems (Scram)

ABSTRACT

A malicious hacker can compromise the integrated traffic management systems (ITMS) speed sensors in a smart city, causing a vehicle to misread the speed and result in collision or congestion on the pathways. Based on protection-motivation theory (PMT), we propose a Time series-based Cyber-risk Assessment and Mitigation for smart cities (SCRAM) model comprising three modules for the smart city administrator. In line with the threat appraisal component of PMT, our cyber-risk assessment (CRA) module uses a Seasonal time series forecasting method, takes ITMS average speed as an input, and outputs the probability of anomalies in the average speed of vehicles. Subsequently, based on the concepts of risk theory, the cyber-risk quantification (CRQ) module calculates the expected loss for a smart city due to collision or congestion on the pathways. In line with the coping appraisal component of PMT, our cyber-risk mitigation (CRM) module proposes strategies for the smart-city administrator to reduce cyber-risk using technological means and pass the residual risk to third-party cyber-insurer.

KEYWORDS:

• Smart city
• cyber-risk
• time series forecasting
• anomaly detection
• protection motivation theory
• cyber-insurance

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Kalpit Sharma

Kalpit Sharma is a Doctoral student at the Indian Institute of Management (IIM) Lucknow. He has published articles in journals and conferences of international repute. His research interests include cyber-risk issues in information systems, the economics of cybersecurity, healthcare IT, IT governance and crowd-based digital business models.

Arunabha Mukhopadhyay

Arunabha Mukhopadhyay is a Professor of Information Technology & Systems Area at Indian Institute of Management Lucknow (IIM Lucknow). He has obtained his Ph.D. and Post Graduate Diploma in Business Management (PGDBM) from the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta (IIM Calcutta) in Management Information Systems. He has published in various refereed journals and conferences, including Decision Support Systems (DSS), Information Systems Frontier (ISF), Journal of Global Information Technology Management (JGITM), JIPS, IIMB Review, Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences (HICSS), Americas Conference on Information Systems (AMCIS), Pre-International Conference On Information Systems (ICIS) workshops, Global Information Technology Management Association (GITMA), Conference of Information Systems and Technology Management (CISTM), International Conference on E-Governance (ICEG), etc. He is the recipient of the Best Teacher in Information Technology Management in 2013 and 2011, by Star-DNA group B-School Award and 19th Dewang Mehta Business School Award, in India, respectively. He is a Member of IEEE, AIS, ISACA, DSI, ITS, and a Life Member of Computer Society of India (CSI), Telemedicine Society of India (TSI), Indian Insurance Institute (III), Actuarial Society of India (ASI), All India Management Association (AIMA), System Dynamics Society of India (SDSI) and, Operations Research Society of India (ORSI).