Mortality Projections for Social Security Programs in the United States

Abstract

Worldwide, the twentieth century brought tremendous reductions in mortality at all ages for both males and females. The reductions in mortality, combined with the aging of the baby boomers and lower fertility rates, are projected to increase the proportion of the U.S. population that is above age 65 in the coming decades. This paper examines past mortality trends, discusses how these trends may change over the next 75 years, and analyzes implications of these trends for the growth of the elderly population. In addition, this paper describes the methods and assumptions used to project future mortality rates and presents results, including assumed annual rates of mortality reduction and projected life expectancies. It also discusses stochastic time-series methods that are used to help quantify the variability in the mortality rate projections.