A Tourist's Multi-Destination Choice Model with Future Dependency

Abstract

This study is concerned with the interrelated choices underlying a tourist's multi-destination behavior. A new destination choice model is developed based on the concept of future dependence, which argues that choice of a destination during a tour is influenced by choices of other destinations that will be visited later. The model is built within the universal (or mother) logit model framework and it is especially suitable to represent the choice behavior with many destinations, which are difficult to represent using a traditional nested logit model. The results of analysis empirically confirmed the effectiveness of the proposed modeling approach, using questionnaire survey data collected in Tottori Prefecture, Japan in 2007. It was also revealed that travel time, diversity of destination, and variety-seeking remarkably affect the multi-destination choice behavior.

Keywords:

• multi-destination choice
• future dependency
• universal logit model
• sequential choice