Cordon screen: A cordon-based congestion pricing policy evaluation method for U.S. cities

ABSTRACT

Global trends toward urbanization will exacerbate traffic congestion, delays in economic productivity, and air pollution issues for growing cities. Traffic congestion pricing is one method available to help ameliorate these concerns. New York City is on the verge of implementing a cordon-based traffic congestion pricing policy around its central business district. For budget-constrained municipalities, evaluating implementation of such policy could be costly. This article proposes a sketch-planning methodology, called Cordon Screen, for major U.S. cities to evaluate the net income, traffic mitigation, and avoided pollution emissions from cordon-based traffic congestion pricing. This method relies on national datasets and limited user-specific data inputs, along with a range of user-selectable assumptions informed by academic literature to deliver order-of-magnitude results. The numerous limitations of this method are acceptable for preliminary policy evaluation to determine if greater financial investment to obtain more accurate results is justified. The Denver metropolitan area is used to demonstrate Cordon Screen capabilities, with mid-range assumption results suggesting the policy is most effective at generating net income and increasing vehicle speeds on major interstates. For Denver, the policy is comparably less effective at reducing air pollution and increasing speeds on minor roadways. Validation against early implementation results from the London cordon are acceptable. However, users should discount revenue generation projections. Choice of cordon area may be the most difficult obstacle when using the Cordon Screen. With refinement, Cordon Screen could serve as a low-cost, open-source planning evaluation tool for growing and congested U.S. cities.

Implications: As global urbanization trends continue, impacted local governments will be looking to explore policies to mitigate traffic congestion and reduce environmental emissions. Internationally, cordon-based traffic congestion pricing has been implemented in London, Singapore, and several other large cities. In America, New York City is implementing cordon-based congestion pricing around its central business district to reduce traffic and environmental emissions. Financial resource constraints, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, may limit the ability for local governments to invest in studying new policy options. The Cordon Screen method detailed in the manuscript presents a low-cost, open-source approach to assessing the potential benefits of cordon-based traffic congestion policy. The method utilizes national datasets to minimize user-specific data requirements and allows users to toggle between a range of values to test sensitivities to key assumptions. For example, emissions reductions are highly sensitive to how drivers respond to tolling. In this example, sensitivity testing enables users to understand how policy design can impact air quality goals. The Cordon Screen approach presented provides a strong platform for future stakeholder deliberation, refinement, and implementation.

Acknowledgment

The authors wish to thank Marcelo Duarte for his excellent tutoring on GIS software functionality. This work was included as part of Mrs. Simeone’s PhD thesis, which included research assistant/internship at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. This work was authored in part by the Joint Institute for Strategic Energy Analysis (JISEA) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, operated by Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC, for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) under Contract No. DE-AC36-08GO28308. Funding provided by the Joint Institute for Strategic Energy Analysis. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent the views of the DOE, the U.S. Government, or sponsors.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Data availability

The authors agree to allow the excel-based model (in write-protected form) with underlying data to support the analysis to be made available to the public at https://data.mendeley.com/datasets/gk7ysbvzd7/1

S upplementary material

S upplemental data for this paper can be accessed on the publisher’s website

Notes

¹ Guse, Clayton, “NYC’s congestion pricing program may be delayed by two years, MTA says”, (November 29, 2020), New York Daily News, available at https://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/ny-congestion-pricing-delays-mta-funding-20201129-rg6yjp5jurc7ljaoxrqdcnufum-story.html (accessed November 11, 2021).

² See Nikhil Sikka, Thomas Adler and Vince Bernardin, “A Road Pricing Feasibility Screening Tool – Beta Version”, November 2014, available at https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/tmip/publications/other_reports/feasibility_screening/ (accessed February 3, 2021).

³ Cordon Screen estimates the initial short-term benefits of cordon-based congestion pricing and does not consider the long-term responses to the policy.

⁴ See Nikhil Sikka, Thomas Adler and Vince Bernardin, “A Road Pricing Feasibility Screening Tool – Beta Version”, November 2014, available at https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/tmip/publications/other_reports/feasibility_screening/ (accessed February 3, 2021).

⁵ The rebound effect refers to commuters being re-attracted to roadways during peak travel due to quicker commute times from reduced congestion.

⁶ Here, the Denver region is defined by the Denver Regional Council of Governments (DRCOG), includes Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Clear Creek, Douglas, Gilpin, and Jefferson counties, the City and County of Denver, the City and County of Broomfield and southwest Weld County. The metropolitan statistical area (MSA) of Denver-Aurora-Broomfield and the DRCOG region boundaries are somewhat contiguous; however, the MSA includes Park and Elbert Counties, which are not part of DRCOG, but does not include Boulder County, which is part of DRCOG, or a portion of Weld County, which is part of the DRCOG Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) boundary.

⁷ Functional classes considered included interstate, freeway/expressway, other principal arterial, minor arterial, major collector.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Christina E. Simeone

Christina E. Simeone is a Ph.D. candidate in the Advanced Energy Systems program jointly offered between the Colorado School of Mines and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. She has over 15 years of work experience on energy and environmental issues in the academic, regulatory, non-profit advocacy, and private sectors.

Matthew Thornton

Dr. Matthew Thornton is a Principal Research Engineer and the manager of the Fuels and Combustion Science group at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The research under this group spans from individual molecules to vehicle scale fuel economy and emissions performance. The fuels and combustion science group explores the chemical basis of how biofuels, advanced petroleum-based fuels, fuel blends, and natural gas perform in engines and vehicles across all transportation modes as well as in fuel pumps, storage tanks, and distribution systems.