The Political Economy of Japan’s Development Strategy under China-US Rivalry: The Crane, the Dragon, and the Bald Eagle

Abstract

Much has been written on how an increasingly assertive China has sought to challenge the incumbent players in the global and regional arenas. Japan, as East Asia’s regional hegemon, is said to be throwing its weight behind the US because it has much to lose in an era of China rising. Nevertheless, how much of this resembles reality? This article seeks to unpack some commonly held assumptions, focusing on the political/security as well as economic choices facing Japan. It argues that the Japanese have seemingly forged a rather strong alignment with the US in the sphere of politics/security, often with an eye to limit the influence of China. However, the situation is less clear cut when it comes to opportunities and challenges in the economic realm. Indeed, in some of Japan’s most prominent industries, one observes complementarity effects and close interdependence with the Chinese economy. These findings illustrate that China-Japan competition is more complex than commonly portrayed, in addition to raising questions about the complicating effects that economic interdependence can have in a nation’s “strategic” policies.

Keywords:

• Great power competition
• geopolitics
• Sino-Japanese relations
• global production networks
• political economy
• East Asia

Notes

1 In Shiraishi’s (2005: p.3) words, what the US was ultimately looking for in East Asia in those years was ‘a workshop and a logistical base, and the only suitable candidate was Japan’. These considerations might be subject to change with the maturing of the regional and global political economic order.

2 Other researchers have put forward more multifaceted viewpoints regarding Japanese efforts to promote quality infrastructure. For example, Suzuki (2022) acknowledges elements of rivalry between China and Japan, but stresses that it is a mistake to assume that this dynamic is all-encompassing. There are bound to be variations in competition according to the region or issue covered, which might lead to unexpected outcomes. Recent Sino-Japanese studies supporting Suzuki’s (2022) thesis include but are not limited to Lim (2022), who analyses funding patterns undergirding Indonesia’s energy transition, and Yamamoto (2020), who examines development assistance overtures towards Southeast Asia.