Impact of climate change on the distribution of populations of an endemic Mexican columnar cactus in the Tehuacán-Cuicatlán Valley, Mexico

Abstract

In this paper, we present a bioclimatic approach to (1) differentiate populations of the endemic Mexican columnar cactus Neobuxbaumia tetetzo within the Tehuacán-Cuicatlán Valley and (2) evaluate, under two possible future scenarios (years 2050 and 2080), the effects of climate change on the total species distribution in this area, as well as on groups of populations defined by their bioclimatic models. Four population groups were identified, and principal component analysis showed that the variables that explained more than 40% of the climatic variation were precipitation of the wettest quarter and temperature seasonality. Bioclimatic models under the different scenarios indicated that when the overall species distribution was analyzed, this area will probably have contracted by 19.5% by the year 2050 and 47.05% by the year 2080, whereas the separate analysis of population groups projected area contractions of 18.4% by the year 2050 and 51.95% by the year 2080. These results demonstrate the importance of exploring new approaches for evaluating and predicting current and future distribution of plant species.

• Arid zones
• bioclimatic models
• Neobuxbaumia tetetzo
• Mexico

Acknowledgements

We would like to thank the Millennium Seed Bank and the MGU Useful Plant Project, the Royal Botanical Gardens, Kew, the Comisión Nacional para el Conocimiento y Uso de la Biodiversidad (CONABIO projects: HE008 y BK029), the Facultad de Estudios Superiores Iztacala, the Universidad National Autónoma de México (UNAM-PAPCA projects 2006–2007 and 2009–2010, and UNAM-PAPIIT project IN 212407), and Volkswagen (Por Amor al Planeta Project) for supporting this research. We are also grateful to Miguel Galo for his help in preparing the figures, and to Dr Robert Bye (Jardín Botánico, UNAM) and Michael Way (Royal Botanic Gardens Kew) for reviewing the English version of the manuscript.