Potential impacts of climate change on habitat suitability of Fagus sylvatica L. forests in spain

Abstract

Fagus sylvatica forests are considered to be of Community interest according to Directive 92/43/EEC. Climate change predictions for Spain point to a warming scenario, coupled with decreasing rainfall, which may have an impact on their future distribution particularly at the extremes of its distribution area. Species distribution models incorporating bioclimatic, topographic and phytogeographic variables were used as predictors to assess their habitat suitability under current conditions and a climate change projection. Ten single models were generated and an ensemble-forecasting model was subsequently built by computing a consensus of single-model projections. The results revealed that ombrothermic indices are the main factors controlling the distribution of Spanish beech forests. They are highly vulnerable to climate change and could suffer a decline in their habitat suitability if climate trends observed are maintained in the future. The least favoured areas for them will be located close to the limit between the Temperate and Mediterranean climates, where they could suffer a loss of habitat suitability. Conversely, suitable new areas could be found mainly in western areas of the Cantabrian Range and in the Central Pyrenees.

Keywords:

• Bioclimatology
• climate change
• Fagus sylvatica
• habitat suitability
• MaxEnt
• Phytogeography
• Spain

Acknowledgements

We acknowledge the contribution of Prudence Brooke-Turner (M.A. Cantab./University of Cambridge) for her help with revising the English text. We also thank anonymous reviewers for their useful comments.