Does voting end at the water’s edge? Canadian public opinion and voter intentions, 2006–2015

Abstract

Public attitudes on Canadian foreign policy matters have received growing attention in recent years, both to understand the nature of public opinion and the effects of public preferences on decision makers. This article offers a contribution on both fronts, focusing on the study of specific events (policies and political messaging) rather than grand principles. By doing so, we offer a novel approach to assess the level of public support enjoyed by the Harper’s government international policy. Also, we compare public attitudes toward the events with voter intention data to evaluate whether the level of popular support for governmental decisions on international issues correlates with electoral gains or losses for the ruling party. This article concludes that public opinion was highly supportive of the Conservative government foreign policy, but that this did not translate into a systematic increase in voter intention. In this sense, foreign policy decisions did not produce electoral payoffs for the ruling party.

Résumé

L’attitude du public vis-à-vis de sujets de politique étrangère canadienne fait l’objet d’une attention croissante depuis quelques années, à la fois pour comprendre la nature de l’opinion publique et les effets des préférences de la population sur les preneurs de décisions. Cet article apporte sa contribution sur ces deux fronts, en se concentrant sur l’examen d’événements précis (politique et message politique) plutôt que de grands principes. Ce faisant, nous proposons une nouvelle approche pour évaluer le niveau de soutien du public dont a joui la politique internationale du gouvernement Harper. Par ailleurs, nous comparons les attitudes du public vis-à-vis des événements avec les données sur les intentions de voter, afin d’évaluer si le niveau de soutien populaire pour les décisions gouvernementales à propos des questions internationales est corrélé aux gains ou aux pertes électoraux pour le parti au pouvoir. Selon la conclusion de cet article, l’opinion publique a fermement soutenu la politique étrangère du gouvernement conservateur, sans pour autant que cela se traduise par une augmentation systématique des intentions de vote favorables à celui-ci. En ce sens, les décisions de politique étrangère n’ont pas produit de récompenses électorales pour le parti au pouvoir.

Keywords:

• public opinion
• Conservative Party of Canada
• internationalism
• voter intention
• electoralist thesis

Acknowledgements

The author would like to thank Rachel Coˆté, Paul Minard as well as the three anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Notes

1. These polling firms are: Abacus Data, Angus Reid, Asking Canadians, COMPAS, Decima Research, EKOS, Environics, Forum Research, Harris Decima, Innovative Research, IPSOS Reid, Leger Marketing, NANOS Research, Pollara, Pollster, Praxicus Public Strategies, Segma, SES Research, Strategic Counsel, TNS Canada, and Unimarketing.

2. A poll asking public preferences on the policy or rhetoric was taken a few days or weeks before or after each event. The net support reflects the level of support or opposition as reported in these polls. When more than one poll was published on a single event, results reported in this paper are indicative of the average of support in these polls.

3. These events are: Colvin testimony on Afghan torture scandal, G20 summit held in Toronto, Canada loses bid for UNSC non-permanent seat, announcement of training mission for Afghanistan post-2011, Canada suspends diplomatic ties with Iran, government of Canada approves sale of Nexen to foreign interests, Prime minister trip to Israel, Canadian sanctions in Ukrainian crisis and the extension of the IS mission.