Has President Trump killed the Middle East Peace Process?

ABSTRACT

President Donald Trump's long-awaited Middle East peace plan was unveiled on 28 January 2020. Some observers have suggested that the Trump vision is less a plan for peace than a unilateral statement of the terms for Palestinian surrender: Jerusalem as the undivided capital of Israel, no refugee return and Israel's annexation of the Jordan valley and all West Bank settlements in exchange for an “archipelago” state and the promise of a $50 billion investment fund. This policy commentary assesses what the Trump plan means for the peace process launched in Madrid in 1991. It reviews the evolution of the Madrid/Oslo process with particular emphasis on the underlying principles the Trump plan appears to contradict. It examines Canada's role in the process, assesses Ottawa's initial response to the Trump plan in terms of long-standing Canadian policy and outlines ways in which Canada could influence the debate going forward.

RÉSUMÉ

Le plan de paix très attendu du président Donald Trump pour le Moyen–Orient a été dévoilé le 28 janvier 2020. Certains observateurs ont suggéré que la vision de Trump relevait moins d'un plan pour la paix que d'une déclaration unilatérale des conditions d'une reddition palestinienne : Jérusalem comme capitale indivise d'Israël, pas de retour des réfugiés et l'annexion par Israël de la vallée du Jourdain et de toutes les colonies de Cisjordanie en échange d'un État « archipel » et de la promesse d'un fond d'investissement de 50 milliards de dollars. Ce commentaire politique évalue ce que le plan Trump signifie pour le processus de paix lancé à Madrid en 1991. Il passe en revue l'évolution du processus Madrid/Oslo en mettant particulièrement l'accent sur les principes sous–jacents que le plan Trump semble contredire. Il examine le rôle du Canada dans le processus, évalue la réponse initiale d'Ottawa au plan Trump, en termes de politique canadienne de longue date, et décrit les moyens par lesquels le Canada pourrait influencer le débat à l'avenir.

KEYWORDS:

• Middle East (Madrid) peace process
• Trump
• Netanyahu
• Israel
• Palestinian

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No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

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Notes on contributors

David Viveash

David Viveash was a member of the Canadian Refugee Working Group (RWG) team, headed Canadian delegations to the Environment, Regional Economic Development and Water Resources Working Groups, and participated in a number of Multilateral Steering Group meetings. He served abroad as Head of the Political Section at the Canadian Embassy in Israel (1995–1998), Ambassador to Libya (2003–2006) and Canadian Representative to the Palestinian Authority (2006–2008). Following retirement from the Canadian government, he participated in the Jerusalem Old City Initiative (JOCI) and was Director of The Carter Center Field Office for Israel and the occupied Palestinian territory (2011–2013).