Predictive validity of the HCR-20^V3 in a sample of Australian forensic psychiatric patients

Abstract

The Historical Clinical Risk Management-20 Version 3 is the latest iteration in the HCR-20 series, adopting novel changes such as the addition of Relevance ratings and non-requirement to include the Psychopathy Checklist–Revised. This study aimed to examine these changes and compare the predictive validity of the HCR-20^V3 to the HCR-20^V2. The sample comprised of 100 forensic psychiatric patients, retrospectively followed up for a maximum period of approximately 13 years post-discharge from the Thomas Embling Hospital. Recidivism data were sourced from official police records. Results indicated good to excellent inter-rater reliability. The HCR-20^V3 significantly predicted violent recidivism (area under the curve = .70 to .77), levels of accuracy that were not significantly different from the HCR-20^V2. HCR-20^V3 Relevance ratings failed to add incremental validity above Presence ratings; however, the PCL–R improved upon the HCR-20^V3’s validity. The study represented one of the first evaluations of the HCR-20^V3 in Australia.

Keywords:

• HCR-20^V3
• Historical Clinical Risk Management-20 Version 3
• PCL–R
• predictive validity
• Psychopathy Checklist–Revised
• reliability
• violence risk assessment

Ethical standards

Declaration of conflicts of interest

Delene Brookstein has declared no conflicts of interest

Michael Daffern has declared no conflicts of interest

James Ogloff has declared no conflicts of interest

Rachel Campbell has declared no conflicts of interest

Chi Meng Chu has declared no conflicts of interest

Ethical approval

This article does not contain any studies with human participants or animals performed by any of the authors.