An analysis of spatial patterns in serial rape, arson, and burglary: The utility of the circle theory of environmental range for psychological profiling

Abstract

D Canter and P. Larkin's (1993) Circle Theory of Environmental Range was designed as a means of using the geographical locations of an individual offender's known offences to predict the approximate site of the offender's residential base. Canter and Larkin obtained support for their theory from an investigation of spatial patterns in serial rapists' offences in a few British cities. The present study sought to assess the generality of Circle Theory by examining spatial patterns of serial offences in three crime modalities in the Australian environment Data on 24 serial rapists, 22 serial arsonists, and 27 serial burglars were extracted from the NSW Police Service's files of criminal records. For each case the positions of offences and the domestic base were plotted on a scaled street map. Using a technique defined by Canter and Larkin a circle was constructed to represent the offender's hypothetical criminal range. In most cases of serial rape and arson, the hypothetical criminal range encompassed the known residential base of the offender. This is suggestive of a so‐called marauder pattern of offences for rape and arson, that is, the offender tends to operate from the domestic base and move out in various directions to commit offences. A small minority of rape and arson offences nevertheless exhibited a commuter pattern in which the domestic base falls outside the criminal range. The crime of burglary, on the other hand, showed marauder and commuter patterns in equal proportions A corollary of the marauder model, known as the range hypothesis, also was tested. Results indicated that the domestic base of marauding offenders might be closer to the centre of the criminal range than had been found in Canter and Larkin's British sample. Additionally, no support was found for the proposed existence of a zone around the offender's domestic base in which no offences are committed. Consideration is given to the possible role of geographical and other factors in the spatial distribution of an individual criminal's serial offences. It is concluded that qualified support may be given to the application of Circle Theory to Australian serial crimes, although the marauder model is far from universally predominant.