Underlying Uncertainty in the Simulation of Soil Moisture and Runoff from Climate Models

Summary

A review of land surface models designed for climate models is presented focussing on the modelling of runoff and soil moisture. It is argued that the modelling of runoff contains some skill and results from climate models can be used with care. The simulation of soil moisture is more uncertain and the actual soil moisture amounts simulated by land surface schemes are not currently useful in impacts work (although the change in soil moisture might be). The methods for representing horizontal heterogeneity and sub-grid scale processes are discussed as an indication of an area where progress is being made. Future directions currently under consideration within the international community are noted.

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Notes on contributors

A J Pitman

Professor A.J. Pitman completed his BSc (Hons) and PhDs at Liverpool University in 1985 and 1988 respectively. He was appointed as a Research Fellow, first at Liverpool and then at Macquarie University in Sydney. He became a lecturer in 1991, a Senior Lecturer in 1994 and an Associate Professor in 1997 and Professor in 1999. His main research interests are in the development and evaluation of the land surface component of large scale climate models. He collaborates with research groups in the Bureau of Meteorology as well as key groups in France, China and the USA. He is a lead author of the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change. He is deputy chair of the Science Steering Committee of IGBP-BAHC and co-chair of the GEWEX/WGNE sponsored Project for the Intercomparison of Land surface Parameterization Schemes (PILPS). He has published around 50 fully refereed papers, 7 book chapters, a textbook and around 25 published reports and written conference papers. He currently enjoys Australian Research Council funding. As a University teacher, he has also been heavily involved in the development and implementation of WWW-based undergraduate programs at Macquarie University in Atmospheric Science and Physical Geography. He is Head of the Department of Physical Geography at Macquarie University and Deputy Head of the Division of Environment and Life Sciences. He is a member of the American Geophysical Union and the American Meteorology Society.