Calculating the Probability of Failure of a Hydraulic System

Summary

This paper illustrates a simple, accurate and efficient method of estimating the probability offailure of a hydraulic system. The proposed method requires the same information as that of conventional methods. It does not require one to estimate or assume the probability density function of the performance function, describing the behaviour of the hydraulic system. The proposed method does assume that the system response is a strictly monotonic function with respect to one of the random variables. Many hydraulic and hydrological systems possess the property of monotonicity.