Guidelines for responding to the effects of climate variability and change in hydrology and water resources engineering

Abstract

Marked climate variability is an intrinsic aspect of the Australia climate. The probability of future climate variability and change represent key threats to many Australians. Current predictive insight into the future Australian climate is, at best limited but also possibly misleading as climate processes are complex and are still not well understood. Confidence in current GCM predictions is almost exclusively overplayed. A common insurance industry practice is to define risk as the probability of occurrence multiplied by the consequence of that occurrence. If the scientific community cannot provide reliable predictions of future climate (and in particular climate extremities), then the focus must turn to reducing the consequences of possible changes in climate. In this light, engineers can best contribute by acknowledging the uncertainty of future climate and by incorporating known climate variability into current practices for drought and flood prone designs. Increasing climate tolerance should be an intuitively appealing response to predictive uncertainty.

The potential impacts of climate variability and change on Australia are wide-ranging and rigorous risk analysis of these threats requires analyses that cross traditional disciplinary boundaries. It is believed that a truly multi-disciplinary approach is needed to evaluate these threats. To this aim, mechanisms are required that integrate knowledge and provide a suitable forum for a more holistic approach to climate impacts. This may be best served by the organisation of specific conferences and workshops devoted to these aims, but with broad representation from relevant stakeholders. The Institution of Engineers, Australia, is ideally suited for coordinating such a role, as a key institutional body responsible for practical adaptive solutions to climate impacts.