Evaluation of hydrologic and hydraulic models for real-time flood forecasting use in the Yangtze River catchment

Abstract

A key component of the Yangtze River Flood Control and Management Project is the development of an integrated real-time flood forecasting system to improve the reliability, accuracy and lead times of forecast flood discharges and flood levels along the upper and middle reaches of the Yangtze River. Central to the flood forecasting system is the use of appropriate hydrologic and hydraulic models. As part of the hydrologic and hydraulic model evaluation and selection process, a comprehensive comparative study was carried out for five well established hydrologic models and three well established hydraulic models to assess their performance and suitability for use in real-time forecasting in the Yangtze River catchment. The model evaluations were undertaken using common data sets and technical performance criteria specified in the Chinese National Standards for Flood Forecasting Models. This paper describes how the different hydrologic and hydraulic model performances were evaluated and presents the findings on their suitability for use in the Yangtze River flood forecasting system.

Keywords:

• Yangtze River
• hydrologic modeling
• hydraulic modeling
• flood forecasting

Additional information

Notes on contributors

M S Markar

Sharmil Markar graduated in 1979 from the University of Peradeniya, Sri Lanka, with a First Class Honours Degree in Civil Engineering. In 1981, he was awarded a postgraduate scholarship to undertake doctoral studies in Water Resources Engineering at Monash University in Melbourne. After completing his PhD studies in 1984 he worked for one year as a post-doctoral Research Fellow at Monash University. He joined Water Studies, a specialist water resources engineering consultancy, in 1985 as a graduate engineer and progressed to become a director of the firm in 1995. When Water Studies was acquired by the Coffey Group of companies in January 1999, he became a Principal Engineer with Water Studies, until he left the firm in February 2004 to set up WRM Water & Environment in Brisbane.

Sharmil Markar has over 25 years experience in the surface water resources field. He has provided consulting advice in a wide variety of hydrologic, hydraulic and water resources studies in all Australian States and Territories, and several overseas countries. He has undertaken consulting work for the mining, land development, industrial, insurance, litigation, and overseas development assistance sectors and for local, state and federal government agencies.

He has been involved in the Yangtze Flood Control and Management Project as the Team Leader for hydrologic modelling and flood forecasting system development since the project inception in 2001.