Implications of the Global and Regional Changes for Argentina's Foreign Relations

Abstract

The article examines the implications of global power redistribution processes for Argentina's foreign relations, focusing on the relative loss of centrality of the United States in the Southern Cone, the ongoing consolidation of a South American system with Brazil as the main power, and the re-emergence of China and its growing interest in South America. The period studied extends from the turn of the century until 2012. Argentina responded to these changes in a complex and distinct manner. A strategy of ‘coupling’ with the United States was replaced with that of ‘limited opposition’. Towards Brazil Argentina has pursued a strategy of accommodation, seeking to maximize benefits while retaining as much autonomy as possible. Finally, with China Argentina has practiced a strategy of ‘reliable engagement,’ which has provided clear dividends, but appears to be reaching exhaustion. We conclude by putting Argentine relations with these three countries into broader perspective.

Keywords::

• Argentina
• foreign policy
• Brazil
• USA
• China
• South America
• coupling
• limited opposition

Appendix 1

Table

Table

Table

Notes

^1. Roberto Russell and Juan G. Tokatlian, El lugar de Brasil en la política exterior argentina, Buenos Aires, Fondo de Cultura Económica, 2003, pp. 45–59.

^2. We use the concept ‘systemic changes’ in the same sense as Robert Gilpin. See his book War and Change in World Politics, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1981, pp. 42–43.

^3. For an interesting analysis of these debates, see José Paradiso, Debates y trayectoria de la política exterior argentina, Buenos Aires, Grupo Editor Latinoamericano, 1993.

^4. On the concept ‘asymmetry’ and its implications for bilateral relations, see Brantley Womack, ‘Asymmetry and Systemic Misperception: China, Vietnam and Cambodia during the 1970’s', Journal of Strategic Studies, 26:2, June 2003, pp. 92–119.

^5. On structural and relational power, see Susan Strange, States and Markets. An Introduction to International Political Economy, London, Pinter, 1988, pp. 25–9.

^6. David C. Kang, ‘The theoretical roots of hierarchy in international relations’, Australian Journal of International Affairs, 58:3, September 2004, p. 339.

^7. Roberto Russell and Juan G. Tokatlian, ‘Beyond Orthodoxy: Asserting Latin America's New Strategic Options Toward the United States’, Latin America Politics and Society, 53:3, Winter 2011, pp. 129–134.

^8. Eric Hobsbawm, ‘Después del siglo XX: un mundo en transición’, in Ricardo Lagos (ed), América Latina: ¿integración o fragmentación?, Buenos Aires, Edhasa, 2008, pp. 29–47.

^9. Remarks by the President of the Argentine Republic, Nestor Kirchner at the inauguration of the IV Summit of the Americas, Mar del Plata, http://www.summit-ameicas.org/Documents%20del%20presidente%20de%20Rep%C3BAblica%20Argentina.pdf.

^10. La Nación (Buenos Aires), ‘Cristina Kirchner criticó a Obama con duros términos’, 26 February 2010. Available at: http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1237368-cristina-kirchner-critico-a-obama-con-duros-terminos, accessed 17 November 2011.

^11. For more in depth analysis of the bilateral relations see Russell and Tokatlian, El lugar de Brasil, pp. 45–59 and Roberto Russell and Juan G. Tokatlian, ‘Percepções argentinas sobre o Brasil: ambivalências e expectativas’, Política Externa, 20:2, September 2011, pp. 43–56.

^12. Monica Hirst, ‘La política sudamericana de Brasil: entre el peso de las asimetrías y la incidencia de nuevas coyunturas’, in F. Calderón (ed.), Escenarios políticos en América Latina. Conceptos, métodos y Observatorio Regional, Cuadernos de Gobernabilidad Democrática 2, Buenos Aires: PNUD; Siglo XXI, 2008, p. 257.

^13. We use the concept of friendship following Alexander Wendt, Social Theory of International Politics, Cambridge, Cambridge UP, 1999, pp. 297–308.

^14. La Nación Economía y Negocios, Buenos Aires, ‘Brasil, en la vida cotidiana argentina’, 22 May 2011, p. 1.

^15. On China–Latin America relations at the beginning of the XXI Century, see Juan G. Tokatlian, ‘A view from Latin America’, in R. Roett and G. Paz (eds), China's Expansion into the Western Hemisphere: Implications for Latin America and the United States, Washington D.C, Brookings Institution Press, 2008.

^16. According to Mark P. Sullivan, a specialist on Latin American affairs at the U.S. Congressional Research Service, ‘The balance of opinion toward China and the United States in Latin America tend to be roughly comparable, according to a (2007) Pew study. Two exceptions are Argentina, where China is viewed much more favorably than the United States, and in Mexico, where the United States is viewed much more favorably than China.’ See Thomas Lum (ed.), ‘Comparing Global Influence: China and U.S. Diplomacy, Foreign Aid, Trade, and Investment in the Developing World’, in CRS Report to Congress, August 15 2008.

^17. Kevin Gallagher, ‘Latin America's China challenge’, 2011, Policy Innovations, http://www.ase.tufts.edu/gdae/Pubs/rp/Gallagher_PolicyInnovationsJan11.pdf, accessed 18 November 2011.

^18. Pablo Gerchunoff, 2010, ‘Causas y azares…en más de un siglo de historia económica argentina’, in R. Russell (ed.), Argentina 1910–2010. Balance de un siglo, Buenos Aires: Taurus, p. 152.

^19. See the complete quote in Sergio Cesarin, ‘China y Argentina: Enfoques y recomendaciones para potenciar la relación bilateral’, Serie Aportes, 2010, http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/argentinien/07560.pdf, accessed 28 November 2011.

^20. Based on INDEC, 2011 and Comercio Exterior Argentino, 2010, http://www.indec.gov.ar/, accessed 13 November 2011.

^21. Cámara de Exportadores de la República Argentina, En Cont@cto China, No. 43, November 2011, p. 16.

^22. In October 2009, President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner visited India. It was her first trip to an Asian country after her inauguration in December 2007 and it was the first visit of an Argentine president to India since 1994.

^23. It is important to mention the cases of Indonesia and Vietnam for two reasons: the growth of trade in the last decade and the fact Argentine exports to these two countries are mainly non-traditional commodities. For example, exports to Indonesia jumped from US$43 million in 2001 to US$852 million in 2010, while exports to Vietnam grew from US$60 million in 2001 to US$654 million in 2010. Clarín iEco, Buenos Aires, ‘Argentina, en más puertos’, 28 August 2011.

^24. La Nación. Economía y Negocios, Buenos Aires, ‘La soja argentina ahora apunta a la India’, 15 September 2011, p. 3

^25. China Daily, ‘Argentina China sign tentative swap deal’, 31 March 2009, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2009-03/31/content_7635007.htm, accessed 11 November 2011.

^26. Argenpress (Buenos Aires), ‘Inversiones chinas en la Argentina: Claves del nuevo escenario energético’, 14 June 2011, http://www.argenpress.info/2011/06/inversiones-chinas-en-argentina-claves.html accessed 19 November 2011.

^27. See text of the agreement at: http://www.grr.org.ar/rionegro-china/acuerdo-saiz-china.pdf, accessed 26 Nov 2011 and El Cronista, Buenos Aires, ‘China invierte %1.500 millones en Río Negro para asegurarse alimentos’, 9 June 2011, http://www.cronista.com/negocios/China-invierte-us-1.500-millones-en-Rio-Negro-para-asegurarse-alimentos-20110609-0033.html, accessed 19 November 2011.

^28. On other actual and potential Chinese investments in Argentine provinces see Cámara Argentino China, Negocios con China, 2011, http://www.argenchina.org/articulos/_2010/NegociosConChina.pdf, accessed 14 November 2011, and FUNDAMIN, ‘China invierte en las 23 provincias argentinas’, http://fundamin.com.ar/es/info/36-exportaciones-e-importaciones/299-china-invierte-en-las-23-provincias-argentinas.html, accessed 19 November 2011.

^29. http://www.noalamina.org/mineria-informacion-general/general/argentina-china-recreacion-de-la-vieja-qrelacion-especialq-con-gran-bretana, accessed 20 January 2012.

^30. ‘Las relaciones entre China y Argentina’, http://espanol.cri.cn/1161/2012/11/28/1s264119.htm, accessed 17 November 2011.

^31. ‘Railway rapprochement: China invests in Argentina’, 2010, http://www.as-coa.org/articles/2528/Railway_Rapprochement:_China_Invests_in_Argentina/, accessed 17 Nov 2011.

^32. Silvia Simonit, ‘Las empresas chinas en Argentina’, Chinese Studies Working Paper Series (Universitat Pompeu Fabra), No. 1, 2011.

^33. Loro Horta, ‘In Uncle Sam's Backyard: China's Military Influence in Latin America’, Military Review, September-October 2008, p. 48.

^34. As are the cases of Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Venezuela.

^35. Seguridad y Defensa, ‘El Ejército Negocia con China la compra de helicópteros’, 10 October 2010, http://www.seguridadydefensa.com.ar/noticias/ejercito-negocia-con-china-la-compra-de-helicopteros-25059.html, accessed 10 November 2011.

^36. http://www.elmetroonline.com.ar/index.php?option = com_k2&view = item&id = 1067: puricelli-firm%C3%B3-convenio-de-defensa-con-china&Itemid = 238, accessed 12 September 2012.

^37. China Military Online, ‘Chang Wanquan holds talks with Argentine deputy Defense minister’, 28 November 2011, http://eng.chinamil.com.cn/news-channels/china-military-news/2011-11/28/content_4725893.htm, accessed 29 November 2011.

^38. T. Wang, et, ‘New SRL station running in San Juan of Argentina’, Crustal Dynamics Data Information System, n.d., http://cddis.gsfc.nasa.gov/lw15/docs/papers/New%20SLR%20Station%20Running%20in%20San%20Juan%20of%20Argentina.pdf, accessed 9 November 2011.

^39. Chinese Academy of Sciences, ‘China, Argentina to strengthen cooperation on Antarctic expedition’, 16 August 2010, http://english.bic.cas.cn/NE/201008/t20100816_57510.html, accessed 29 November 2011.

^40. Janie Hulse, ‘China's Expansion into and U.S. withdrawal from Argentina's telecommunications and space industries and the implications for U.S national security’, Strategic Studies Institute, September 2007, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub806.pdf, accessed 7 November 2011.

^41. Ministry of Science and Technology, ‘China y la Argentina se reúnen para desarrollar un Centro Binacional’, 2011: http://www.mincyt.gov.ar/agenda/agenda_detalle. php?id_ agenda = 35, accessed 16 November 2011.

^42. http://www.lmneuquen.com.ar/noticias/2012/8/2/avanza-instalacion-de-una-estacion-satelital-de-china-en-la-provincia_156999, accessed 14 October 2012.

^43. http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/summary.cfm?q = 806, accessed 29 November 2011; http://energy.seenews.com/news/argentina-china-sign-nuclear-cooperation-agreement-306141, accessed 3 November 2012.

^44. For the major reasons that motivated this interest see Lyle Goldstein, ‘China's Falklands Lessons’, Survival, 50:3, 2008, pp. 65-66.

^45. UKNDA, Inconvenient Truths: Threats Justify Prioritising Defence, London, UKNDA, 2011, p. 24.

^46. La Nación, Buenos Aires, ‘Vivir en la Argentina, estudiar en China’, 11 October 2011, http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1413556-vivir-en-la-argentina-estudiar-en-china, accessed 9 November 2011.

^47. G. M. Calderón, ‘Inmigración china en las Américas: Comparación de las experiencias en Canadá y Argentina’, Revista Argentina de Estudios Canadienses, No. 2, 2008, p. 30.

^48. La Nación, Buenos Aires, ‘China: Una oportunidad histórica’, 26 July 2011.

^49. Juan Tokatlian, ‘Latin America, China, and the United States: A Hopeful Triangle’, 2007, Open Democracy, http://www.opendemocracy.net/democracy-protest/hopeful_triangle_4336.jsp, accessed 4 November 2011.

^50. La Nación, Buenos Aires, ‘Una nueva estrategia hacia China’, 29 August 2011.

^51. Brantley Womack, ‘Beyond Win-Win: Rethinking International Relationships in an Era of Economic Uncertainty’, Paper presented to the International Conference on the Chinese Models of Development: Domestic and Global Aspects, Taipei, Taiwan, September 2011.

^52. Joseph Tulchin, Argentina and the United States: A Conflicted Relationship, New York, Macmillan, 1990.

^53. Russell and Tokatlian, ‘Beyond Orthodoxy’.

^54. According to the latest report of Latinobarómetro, 52% of the Argentines consider Brazil as the main leader of Latin America while only 2% gives that condition to the United States, http://www.latinobarometro.org/latino/LATContenidos.jsp, accessed 23 November 2011.

^55. Osvaldo Rosales, ‘La República Popular China y América Latina y el Caribe: Hacia una nueva fase en el vínculo económico comercial’, 2011, ECLAC, http://www.eclac.org/publicaciones/xml/6/43666/La_Republica_Popular_China_y_America_Latina_y_el_Caribe_trade.pdf, accessed 10 November 2011.

^56. Eric Farnsworth, 2011, ‘The New Mercantilism: China's Emerging Role in the Americas’, Current History, February. Available at: http://www.as coa.org/articles/2982/The_New_Mercantilism:_Chinas_Emerging_Role_in_the_Americas/, accessed 28 November 2011.