Presidency of Donald Trump and American Democracy: Populist Messages, Political Sectarianism, and Negative Partisanship

Abstract

In this article, the following three subjects are identified: (1) as the quantitative evidence shows in the first section of this article, democracy in the US has deteriorated since 2016; (2) there could be multiple possible causes for the deterioration of American democracy. In particular, conjunctural opportunities give populist leaders an opening to project authoritarian schemes in the US against the backdrop of political sectarianism and the rise of negative partisanship; (3) the presidency of Donald Trump could be regarded as a cause of degradation of American democracy. Many of Trump’s traits and actions as president of the United States were damaging to American democracy. However, because Trumpism has not thoroughly permeated the Republican party, a barrier exists against further deterioration or even a transition to authoritarianism.

Data Availability Statement

The data that support the findings of this study are openly available in Coppedge, M., Gerring, J., Knutsen, C. H., Lindberg, S. I., Teorell, J., Alizada, N., Altman, D., Bernhard, M., Cornell, A., Fish, M. S., Gastaldi, L., Gjerløw, H., Glynn, A., Hicken, A., Hindle, G., Ilchenko, N., Krusell, J., Luhrmann, A., Maerz, S. F., Marquardt, K. L., McMann, K., Mechkova, V., Medzihorsky, J., Paxton, P., Pemstein, D., Pernes, J., von Römer, J., Seim, B., Sigman, R., Skaaning, S., Staton, J., Sundström, A., Tzelgov, E., Wang, Y., Wig, T., Wilson, S., and Ziblatt, D. 2021. “V-Dem [Country–Year/Country–Date] Dataset v11” Varieties of Democracy Project at https://doi.org/10.23696/vdems21. Another data that supports the findings of this study are openly available in Center for System Peace: INSCR Data Page at https://www.systemicpeace.org/inscrdata.html.

Notes

1 Alex Woodward, “QAnon-linked congresswoman-elect Marjorie Taylor Greene joins effort to reject electoral college votes.” Independent. December 19, 2020. Accessed March 11, 2021. <https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-electoral-college-b1776445.html>

2 “Marjorie Taylor Greene: U.S. House votes to strip Republican of key posts.” BBC. February 5, 2021. Accessed March 11, 2021. <https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-55940542>

3 Adam Taylor, “Trump's ‘stop the steal’ message finds an international audience among conspiracy theorists and suspected cults.” The Washington Post. January 8, 2021. Accessed March 2, 2021. <https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/01/07/trump-qanon-stop-the-steal-japan/>

4 For example, “Trump-shi, Beikoku-no-Minshushugi-ni-Kizu. ‘Bouryoku Younin’ Miekakure.” Asahi Shimbun, January 14, 2021. Accessed March 21. <https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASP1G6VTJP1GUHBI01F.html>; “Trump-ha-no-Gikai-Rannyu Minshu-Taikoku-no-Rekishiteki-Oten da.” Mainichi Shimbun, January 8, 2021. Accessed March 21, 2021. <https://mainichi.jp/articles/20210108/ddm/005/070/098000c>; “Minshushugi-ha-Yomigaeruka Kienu-Trump-no-Zanzo.” Nihon Keizai Shimbun, January 21, 2021. Accessed March 21, 2021. <https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOGN19C0T0Z10C21A1000000/>; “Beigijidou-Senkyo Minshushugi-no-Sendouyaku-no-Na-ga-Naku.” Yomiuri Shimbun, January 9, 2021. Accessed March 21, 2021. <https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/editorial/20210108-OYT1T50240/>; “Be-gikai he-Rannyu Minshushugi-no-Ookina-Oten-da.” Sankei Shimbun, January 9, 2021. Accessed March 21, 2021. <https://www.sankei.com/column/news/210109/clm2101090001-n1.html>

5 The author referred to Frantz (2018) and Haggard and Kaufman (2021). However, in the Kindle format purchased by the author the page number was not indicated.

6 Three categorizations and data were downloaded and quoted from: Center for systematic Peace: The Polity Project Homepage. <https://www.systemicpeace.org/polityproject.html>

7 The author downloaded data and quoted explanations on the variables from V-Dem. For more details on clarifications of the variables, please download and refer to V-Dem Codebook. Accessed March 13, 2021. <https://www.v-dem.net/en/data/data/v-dem-dataset-v11/>

8 The author checked the values for the U.S. by looking into Freedom House: Countries and Territories. Accessed February 25, 2021. <https://freedomhouse.org/countries/freedom-world/scores>

9 Stephanie Kulke, “38% of Americans lack confidence in election fairness.” Northwestern Now. December 23, 2020. Accessed March 1, 2021. <https://news.northwestern.edu/stories/2020/12/38-of-americans-lack-confidence-in-election-fairness/>

10 “Political Typology Reveals Deep Fissures on the Right and Left.” Pew Research Center. October 24, 2017. Accessed March 1, 2021. <https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2017/10/24/political-typology-reveals-deep-fissures-on-the-right-and-left/>

11 “In a Politically Polarized Era, Sharp Divides in Both Partisan Coalitions.” Pew Research Center. October 17, 2019. Accessed March 1, 2021. <https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2019/12/17/views-of-the-major-problems-facing-the-country/> There are small numbers of Republican supporters that be called “Market Skeptic Republicans.” See, “Political Typology Reveals Deep Fissures on the Right and Left.” Pew Research Center. October 24, 2017. Accessed March 1, 2021. <https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2017/10/24/political-typology-reveals-deep-fissures-on-the-right-and-left/>

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number 20KK0026, 18K01418, and 18H03619.

Notes on contributors

Nishikawa Masaru

Nishikawa Masaru is a professor in the Department of International and Cultural Studies at Tsuda University. His research focus is Computational Social Science, US-Japan relations, comparative politics, and American politics. He has published three books in Japanese. He also published several articles in Diplomatic History, Party Politics, PS: Political Science & Politics, and Frontiers in Physics. He has given various academic presentations at OAH, APSA, MPSA, SHAFR, and many others. He is also a frequent contributor to Japanese media, including Mainichi Shimbun and Nikkei Shimbun newspapers. He earned a Ph.D. from Keio University in 2007. Before joining Tsuda University, he was a Fulbright Scholar at Temple University and then a research fellow at the Japan Institute of International Affairs, a private non-partisan think tank focused on foreign affairs and security issues.