The voter says no, but nobody listens: causes and consequences of the Eurosceptic vote in the 2014 European elections

ABSTRACT

The 2014 European Parliament elections saw an unprecedented surge of support for Eurosceptic parties. This article provides an overview of the ideologically highly diverse Eurosceptic camp in the European Parliament and addresses the causes and consequences of the Eurosceptic vote. Based on an analysis of aggregate election results and opinion-poll data, it argues that the electoral success of Eurosceptic parties cannot be dismissed as a mere protest vote against unpopular governments. Instead, fundamental worries about the effects of European Union (EU) policies and dissatisfaction with mainstream politics lie at the heart of the Eurosceptic success. The selection of Jean-Claude Juncker as President of the Commission, backed by overwhelming majorities in the European Council and the European Parliament, suggests that Eurosceptics, despite their considerable electoral support, will continue to be excluded from the EU's corridors of power. This strategy of exclusion provides the ideal breeding ground for an even stronger Eurosceptic backlash in five years' time.

KEY WORDS:

• Anti-establishment politics
• EU issue voting
• European Parliament elections
• Euroscepticism
• populism
• second-order elections

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The author wishes to thank the Department of Government at the London School of Economics and Political Science for hosting him as a visiting fellow while working on this article.

Notes

1 Information on the number of candidates and parties was taken from an overview published by European Voice, available online at http://www.europeanvoice.com/election-2014-candidates (accessed 20 June 2014).

Additional information

Biographical note

Oliver Treib is professor of comparative public policy analysis and research methods at the University of Münster.