Study of the ecological safety of the forest in northeast China under climate change

SUMMARY

If tree diversity, net primary productivity (NPP) and carbon storage of forests increase significantly under climate change, then the forest will be ecologically safe. If two or three of these decrease significantly, the forest will be ecological not safe. The adapted forest dynamics model is used to produce the tree composition, NPP of stems and carbon storage change for a larch forest and mixed broadleaved Korean pine forest (MBKPF) in northeast China under two climate scenarios. The results indicate the dominant tree species of both forest ecosystems are sensitive to climate change. The NPP for both larch forest and MBKPF will change significantly under T2P+10 (temperature increases 2 °C and precipitation increases 10%) and T2P–10 (temperature increases 2 °C and precipitation decreases 10%). The carbon storage of larch forest will change significantly under T2P-10, however, it will not change significantly under T2P+10. For MBKPF the carbon storage will change significantly under T2Pt10, but it will decrease significantly under T2P-10. Therefore, the larch forest will be ecological not safe under T2P+10 in 50 years, but it will be ecological safe under T2P-10. However, MBKPF will be ecological safe under T2P+10, and it will be ecological not safe under T2P-10.

Key words:

• climate change
• ecological safety
• forests
• northeast China