Climate change: some insights from mean surface temperature statistics

Abstract

The actual way to tackle with climate change – the setting of a 2°C limit for the increase of the global mean surface temperature (MST) value – is rather unsafe as, at planet scale, the warming is far from uniform. The latitude zones are characterized not only by different climates, but also by different rates of climate parameters modification. Computer analysis of statistical data for more than 100 years shows that the warming rates of the MST and current temperature anomalies are approximately double when one compares the land/ocean areas or the 64N–90N band to the ones near the equator line. Therefore, the zone differences should be taken into consideration as a useful environment indicator for the setting of sustainability targets. The most intense rise of the surface temperature is present and will continue at increased rate in the zone comprising the Arctic area.

Statistical treatment also shows a negative feedback of the planet, opposing the global warming process. The polar zones are the ones with lesser abatement tendency. The other areas, despite differences in heating rates, present almost similar values for the attenuation index.

Keywords:

• climate change
• environment indicators
• global warming
• tipping elements
• mean surface temperature
• Arctic
• statistics
• global warming safe limits