Climate variability, farmland value, and farmers’ perceptions of climate change: implications for adaptation in rural Pakistan

ABSTRACT

Many studies have examined the impact of climatic variability on agricultural productivity, although an understanding of these effects on farmland values and their relationship to farmers’ decisions to adapt and modify their land-use practices remains nascent in developing nations. We estimated the impacts of the deviation in our study year's (2012) temperature and precipitation patterns from medium-term (1980–2011) climatic patterns on farmland values in Pakistan. This was accomplished by employing a modified form of a Ricardian regression model. We also examined farmers’ perceptions of climate change during this period, as well as their perceptions of climate change impacts on farm productivity, in addition to past and anticipated farm adaptation strategies. Our results indicate that positive temperature deviation from the medium-term mean – indicative of climatic change – affects farmland values in Pakistan. Deviation in annual cumulative precipitation conversely appears to have no significant impact. Estimates of the marginal impact of temperature deviation suggested a slight but negative linear relationship with farmland values. The location of farms in areas where farmers can avail financial or extension services conversely had a positive impact on farmland values, as did the availability of irrigation facilities. Our analysis of farmers’ perceptions of climate change and their consequent adaptation behavior indicated a relatively high degree of awareness of climatic variability that influenced a number of proactive and future anticipated farm adaptation strategies. Examples included increased use of irrigation and farm enterprise diversification, as well as land-use change, including shifting from agriculture into alternative land uses. National policy in Pakistan underscores the importance of maintaining a productive rural agricultural sector. Our findings consequently highlight the importance of appropriate adaptation strategies to maintain both farm productivity and farmland values in much of Pakistan. The implications of increased extension and financial services to enhance farmers’ potential for climate change adaptation are discussed.

KEYWORDS:

• Climate change
• land valuation
• land use
• adaptation
• rural development
• South Asia
• Ricardian analysis

Acknowledegments

This study was financed by the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) and Higher Education Commission of Pakistan (HEC). The initial data collection component of the project was funded by Stiftung Fiat Panis, Germany, while follow-up data collection was financed by the Leibniz Center for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Germany. Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Germany, also provided administrative support throughout the span of this research work, which is highly appreciated. Last but not least, we thank the Pakistan Metrological Department for providing the required climate-related data.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

1. 1USD = 106 PK considering average exchange rates during the survey (2012).

2. Although prices may vary somewhat from year to year or by region, irrigation costs in Pakistan (called abiana in local language) for rabi crops are roughly $1.2 ha⁻¹ single irrigation applied⁻¹ and ~$2 per ha⁻¹ per irrigation applied⁻¹ in kharif. These data are the means reported by farmer respondents for the year during which surveys were deployed.

Additional information

Funding

This study is financed by German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) and Higher Education Commission, Pakistan (HEC). Initial data collection was funded by Stiftung Fiat Panis, Germany, while follow-up data collection was financed by ZALF, Germany.