Rethinking urban sustainability using fuzzy cognitive mapping and system dynamics

ABSTRACT

The extant literature reveals a growing need to rethink urban sustainability. Sustainable urban development is becoming more important to city strategic planning since sustainability is a critical aspect of environmental protection, social cohesion, and economic growth. However, decisions are currently not always taking into account the need to maintain sustainability because either decision makers do not fully understand the decision problems at hand or they do not focus on finding realistic, contextualized solutions. In addition, most existing models of urban sustainability assessment are static. Therefore, new urban sustainability assessment systems based on landsenses ecology are needed, which should combine natural elements, physical senses, and psychological perceptions, and assist decision makers develop successful management policies. Using fuzzy cognitive mapping and system dynamics, this study sought to develop a fresh, holistic perspective on urban sustainability. Based on the knowledge and experience of a panel of experts in urban development, some of the most significant determinants of urban sustainability were identified, namely: sustainable construction; urban planning and/or design; health; economy; culture, citizenship, and education; environmental quality; public policies and governance; and mobility and/or accessibility. The results obtained were validated both by the panel members and the director of the Department of Urban Planning of the Lisbon City Council, Portugal. The advantages and limitations of our approach are also discussed, as well as recommendations for future research.

KEYWORDS:

• Fuzzy cognitive mapping
• landsenses ecology
• Problem-Structuring Methods (PSMs)
• strategic planning
• sustainable urban development
• System Dynamics (SD)
• urban sustainability

Acknowledgments

This work was partially funded by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (Grant UID/GES/00315/2019). Records of the expert panel meetings, including photographs, software output, and non-confidential information generated by this research, can be obtained from the corresponding author upon request. The authors gratefully acknowledge the outstanding contribution and shared knowledge of the following panel members: Álvaro Terezo, Célia Milreu, Dora Lampreia, Manuel Anselmo, Maria Manuel Albino, Pedro Martins Rodrigues, and Rosário Salema. The authors would also like to express their gratitude to Paulo Dias, director of the Department of Urban Planning of the Lisbon City Council in Portugal, for his availability and the important insights he provided during the consolidation of results.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia [UID/GES/00315/2019].