Agricultural liberalization policy and commodity price volatility: a GARCH application

Abstract

This study examines the effect of the recent radical agricultural liberalization policy, i.e. the 1996 FAIR Act, on agricultural commodity price volatility using Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. Results of the study indicate that the agricultural liberalization policy has caused an increase in the price volatility for three major grain commodities (corn, soybeans and wheat) and little change for oats, but a decrease for cotton. These findings stand in sharp contrast to Crain and Lee's observations in 1996 based on wheat markets that market-oriented measures in government farm policies tend to reduce agricultural price volatility.