Forecasting exchange rates out of sample: random walk vs Markov switching regimes

Abstract

A random walk is compared with a Markov switching regimes process in forecasting exchange rates out of sample, using quarterly data on three currencies relative to the US dollar over the period 1973:3–1997:3. The results show that the relative performance of the models varies with the length of the post-sample period suggesting that the availability of more past information may be useful in forecasting future exchange rates.