The impact of under-reporting on the relationship between unemployment and property crime

Abstract

There is considerable debate in the literature about the relationship between the economic cycle and property crime. Much of the debate centres on the statistical methods used to explore the importance of various economics factors in determining crime. This study argues that more attention should be paid to the process that generates the data used in this work. Findings indicate that the reporting rate for property crime is sensitive to economic conditions, but in the opposite direction to the sensitivity of crime itself. This suggests a disparity between the true rate of crime and the measured crime rate, which increases during periods of economic downturn.