Measuring the sustainability of Latin American external debt

Abstract

This article, based on a theoretical model of external debt sustainability, compares Latin American GDP growth with the debt service to total debt ratio. A country-by-country forecast of external debt composition is presented and discussed. External Debt Forecasting is accomplished using yearly data from Global Development Finance 1999. Data for the years 1970 to 1999 are used for a Latin American composite and cross-country comparisons between Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico, Panama, Peru and Venezuela.