Presidential popularity: what matters most, macroeconomics or scandals?

Abstract

What accounts for the widely divergent impact of political scandal on the Nixon and Clinton administrations? This article argues that the extent to which an administration suffers in the public's eye from a scandal depends on the economic conditions prevailing at the time. Using Gallup poll data, it estimates a quadratic social preference function for each administration and finds that the impact of Watergate on Nixon's decline in the polls has been over-emphasized and that the Lewinsky affair had no impact on Clinton's popularity. The role of the economy contributed more to political success or failure in both cases than did scandal.