Locating seasonal cycles in demand models

Abstract

An approach is offered that lets data determine the exact location of seasonal cycles. Rather than use deterministic variables that define the season, it allows seasonal cycles to be identified and modelled as dictated by the data in demand modelling framework.

Notes

 For example, a production cycle for apples has a beginning and ending period taking place within 12 months.

 This holds since the data used in the analysis begin in the month of January.

 FATUS data originates from the US Census Bureau's Foreign Trade Division, where transactions are fully compiled on shipments valued at over US $1250. Apple imports are based on country of origin or where the fruit was actually grown, eliminating transactions involving re-exports.