Modelling food consumption patterns in Greece

Abstract

Modelling consumption patterns is of interest for both theoretical and policy reasons. This paper presents a methodology for modelling consumption patterns combining a theory-based with a data-based approach and it continues with an application to Greek data. The adopted AIDS-ECM quantitative methodology aims to estimate the expected trends in consumption patterns in Greece following an increase in available income over the 2001–2010 period. Three scenarios are examined: the first scenario considers the EU projections for private consumption expenditure, 3% per annum, the second scenario assumes a higher growth of 5% per annum and the third scenario a 1% increase. The results of the first stage expenditure aggregation show a decrease in the budget share for the food group in all scenarios under consideration while the opposite is true for ‘transportation and communication’ and ‘others’. Finally, the second stage expenditure aggregation estimates show an increase in the budget share for meat, fruits and vegetables and oils and fats, while the opposite is true for bread and cereals and other food.

Acknowledgements

An earlier version of this paper has been presented in a EAAE Seminar in Zaragoza, Spain and comments of seminar participants are gratefully acknowledged. The authors wish, also, to thank Aggeliki Kalliri for her valuable research assistance. Partial funding from the Research Account of the University of Athens is gratefully acknowledged.

Notes

¹ Dividing current by constant expenditures derives implicit price indices for each group.

² The parameters for both systems are available upon request.