Earnings convergence in UK counties: a distribution dynamics approach

Abstract

This study applies a distribution dynamics approach to examining the evolution of average earnings of UK counties. An analysis of both transition probability matrices and stochastic kernels suggests considerable persistence in the overall distribution rather than economic convergence. However, there is evidence of a large number of counties congregating at the lower end of the distribution reflecting some downward mobility from the middle. Spatial effects are also important with counties in the South East appearing to gravitate towards the upper end of the distribution. The analysis reveals a more complex pattern of dynamics than is typically apparent from β regression approaches.