Search in:

Applied Economics Letters Volume 14, 2007 - Issue 1

Submit an article Journal homepage

Views

CrossRef citations to date

Altmetric

Original Articles

The value of probability forecasts as predictors of cyclical downturns

Kajal Lahiri Department of Economics, University at Albany – SUNY, Albany, NY 12222, USACorrespondence[email protected]

J. George Wang College of Staten Island–CUNY, USA

Pages 11-14 | Published online: 13 Dec 2006

Cite this article
https://doi.org/10.1080/13504850500425386

Sample our Economics, Finance,Business & Industry journals, sign in here to start your access, latest two full volumes FREE to you for 14 days

Full Article
Figures & data
References
Citations
Metrics
Reprints & Permissions
Read this article /doi/full/10.1080/13504850500425386?needAccess=true

Abstract

The joint subjective probabilities for negative GDP growth during two consecutive quarters obtained from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) are evaluated as predictors of cyclical downturns in the economy using the prequential approach of Dawid (Citation1984) and the skill score decomposition of Murphy (Citation1988).

Notes

¹ There is an extensive literature on the subject. See, for instance, Zarnowitz and Moore (Citation1991), McNees (Citation1991), Stock and Watson (Citation1993), Fintzen and Stekler (Citation1999), Juhn and Loungani (Citation2002) and Filardo (Citation1999, Citation2004).

² See Croushore (Citation1993) for an introduction to SPF.

³ See Diebbold and Rudebusch (Citation1989) and Murphy and Winkler (Citation1992).

Zarnowitz , V and Moore , GH . 1991 . “ Forecasting Recessions under the Gramm-Rudmann-Hollings Law ” . In Leading Economic Indicators: New Approaches and Forecasting Records , Edited by: Lahiri , K and Moore , GH . 257 – 73 . Cambridge : Cambridge University Press .

Google Scholar

McNees , SK . 1991 . “ Forecasting cyclical turning points: the record in the past three recessions ” . In Leading Economic Indicators: New Approaches and Forecasting Records , Edited by: Lahiri , K and Moore , GH . 149 – 65 . Cambridge : Cambridge University Press .

Google Scholar

Stock , JH and Watson , MW . 1993 . “ A procedure for predicting recessions with leading indicators: econometric issues and recent experience ” . In New Research on Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting , Edited by: Stock , JH and Watson , MW . 95 – 153 . Chicago : University of Chicago Press .

Google Scholar

Fintzen , D and Stekler , HO . 1999 . Why did the forecasting fail to predict the 1990 recession? . International Journal of Forecasting , 15 : 309 – 23 .

Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Juhn , G and Loungani , P . 2002 . Further cross-country evidence on the accuracy of the private sector output forecasts . IMF Staff Papers , 49 : 49 – 64 .

Google Scholar

Filardo , AJ . 1999 . How reliable are recession prediction models? . Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review , QII : 35 – 55 .

Google Scholar

Filardo , AJ . 2004 . The 2001 US Recession: what did the recession prediction models tell us? Bank of International Settlements . BIS Working Paper No. 148, March

Google Scholar

Croushore , D . 1993 . Introducing: the survey of professional forecasters . Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Review , November/December : 3 – 15 .

Google Scholar

Diebold , FX and Rudebusch , GD . 1989 . Scoring the leading indicators . Journal of Business , 64 : 369 – 91 .

Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Murphy , AH and Winkler , RL . 1992 . Diagnostic verification of probability forecasts . International Journal of Forecasting , 7 : 435 – 55 .

Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Order Reprints Request Corporate Permissions

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

Request Academic Permissions

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.

Share icon
Back to Top

Related research

People also read lists articles that other readers of this article have read.

Recommended articles lists articles that we recommend and is powered by our AI driven recommendation engine.

Cited by lists all citing articles based on Crossref citations.
Articles with the Crossref icon will open in a new tab.

People also read
Recommended articles
Cited by

To cite this article:

Reference style: APA Chicago Harvard

Citation copied to clipboard

Reference styles above use APA (6th edition), Chicago (16th edition) & Harvard (10th edition)

Download citation

Download a citation file in RIS format that can be imported by citation management software including EndNote, ProCite, RefWorks and Reference Manager.

Choose format: RIS BibTex RefWorks Direct Export

Choose options: Citation Citation & abstract Citation & references

The value of probability forecasts as predictors of cyclical downturns

Information for

Open access

Opportunities

Help and information

The value of probability forecasts as predictors of cyclical downturns

Abstract

Notes

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Academic Permissions

Related research

To cite this article:

Download citation

Information for

Open access

Opportunities

Help and information

Keep up to date

Your download is now in progress and you may close this window

Login or register to access this feature