Nonmarket valuation by prediction markets

Abstract

This study investigated prediction markets as a tool for use in nonmarket valuation. Although market-based predictions were not always accurate, a simple average of individuals’ stated that expectations provided a remarkably accurate depiction of actual voting behaviour.

Notes

¹Using people's predictions of others' preferences also has the potential to alleviate social desirability bias as discussed by Lusk and Norwood (2009a, b).