The nonlinear dynamic process of macroeconomic development by modelling dry bulk shipping market

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to study the trough of the global economics crisis in 2007 by studying business cycle of dry bulk shipping market using an integrative model over the period from January 1999 to October 2008 with developing an integrative model. This market is comprised of three different vessel sizes (Capesize, Panamax and Handymax), which were affected to varying degrees by the global economic crisis. Empirical results indicate that there is one complete cycle during the research period, which was methodologically determined by X11 decomposition and the Phase Average Trend (PAT). The values of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) for the predictive model are 4.0383% (Capesize), 0.8393% (Panamax) and 15.5012% (Handymax). The values of MAPE for the forecasting models are 19.4276%, 10.146% and 8.0399%, respectively. Results indicate that the troughs are September 2009 (Capesize and Panamax) and July 2009 (Handymax). This article concluded that the shipping and macroeconomic recession will persist until the end of 2009.

Keywords:

• dynamic process
• integrative model
• dry bulk market
• X11
• MAPE

JEL Classification:

• C51
• E32
• L91

Acknowledgements

The authors thank the Professor and Dean, Chin-Yuan Hsieh, College of Informatics, Kao Yuan University, for the suggestions and comments about methodology.