The messenger of inflation – how media change political competition

Abstract

Voters do not like bad economic news, especially rising inflation rates. How voters learn about this news, not simply the news itself, can affect electoral behaviour. This article reports a study of media and electoral behaviour between 1960 and 2006 in 70 democratic states. It demonstrates that high inflation rates, combined with intense media coverage, resulted in more political competition and tight electoral races. Our detailed results show that European (EU-27) voters are more sensitive to television and radio coverage than they are to printed press coverage of negative economic news when compared with non-European electorates.

Keywords:

• margins of electoral victory
• inflation rates
• media

JEL Classification:

• E3
• H1
• I3

Notes

¹ Our empirical results are not sensitive to this choice. Even when using the levels instead of the dummies we got the main findings when dividing the sample in alternative ways. Full results are available under request.

² The sample used in the analysis includes several countries that are now democratic but that were characterized in the past by authoritarian regimes. In most cases, formal elections were held even under nondemocratic regimes. Electoral results for those periods were also included in the final sample.