An empirical approach for directly accounting for expectations in behavioural models

Abstract

Demand and choice behaviour models in economic literature often involve demand determinants such as product quality. In theory, decisions are based on expected quality; however, in practice, reported or actual values are used as a proxy for expectations. This paper presents a novel approach to measure expectations directly and then compares the predictive success of this explanatory variable with that of the traditional reported values in modelling behaviour. We use recreational fisheries as a case study, and find, as expected, that a priori expected catch rates are a better determinant of demand than ex post revealed catch rates.

Keywords:

• expectations
• fisheries
• behaviour
• travel cost model

JEL Classification:

• C81
• D12
• D61
• D84
• Q22

Notes

¹ Observations with trip count greater than 40/year (7 observations) or expected catch greater than 3/hour (5 observations).